Bill Frey featured on PBS "Tell Me More"

William H. Frey, Co - PI of TeachingWithData.org, was a featured guest on the PBS radio show, "Tell Me More" on Monday, June 27, 2011 where he discussed the findings of his research about the changing demographics of the United States. A recording of it can be heard here:
http://www.npr.org/2011/06/27/137448906/us-will-have-minority-whites-sooner-says-demographer?f=1003&ft=1 .

Gallup: U.S. Economic Confidence Down in June, Close to 2011 Low

Despite a positive May--one that Gallup attributes to the news of bin Laden's death--U.S. economic confidence has fallen in June, registering near its 2011 low and far from its level at this time last year. Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is developed from two indicators, one that measures Americans' views on the U.S. economy's current standing and another that looks at their assessment of the economy's direction. For the week ending June 26, the Index averaged -33, "down seven percentage points from the week ending May 29 and down a similar amount compared with the same week a year ago." The Index peaked at -18 this year and hit its low in late April, when it fell to -39.
In the week ending June 26, 45 percent of Americans rated current economic conditions "poor," a three point decline from the week ending May 29 and from a year ago. And Americans' assessment of the economy's direction has also become more pessimistic: 31 percent of Americans said the U.S. economy is getting better, down from 37 percent in May and from 36 percent during the same week last year.According to Gallup, "The worsening of Gallup's economic confidence measure during June may be due in part to the dissipation of the 'halo effect' surrounding the death of bin Laden." But there are other factors, too: even as gas prices have declined 14 cents per gallon in the past two weeks, gas is still 82 cents per gallon more expensive than at this time last year. Furthermore, "Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke last week seemed to add to the growing economic pessimism, noting that the Fed has reduced its 2011 growth forecast for the U.S. economy."

While declining gas prices may lead to more economic confidence moving forward, there is little evidence to predict such an upward trend at this time. Writes Gallup: "At this point...Gallup's monitoring of economic confidence does not support that idea."

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Is Climate Change Behind the Extreme Weather of 2010?

In a recent blog post from the Climate Progress section of ThinkProgress.org, they question whether recent extreme weather could be related to climate change. In the post, they use examples from recent events that have been happening all over the world for the past few years, such as floods, rampant fires, temperature changes, extreme weather, and perception. Data about temperature highs in 2010 were taken from wunderground.com, and show that many countries experienced their highest temperatures in many months during 2010.

They also cite events such as increased glacial melting in Greenland, the amount of sea ice, and the increased rate of coral bleaching around coastal nations. In order to analyze precipitation trends, they used data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dating back to 1900. The graph below shows, in millimeters, how much the annual rainfall over land for each year deviated from the average. 2010 set the record high, beating the previous 1956 record by 13%.

The extreme weather we have been experiencing this year and in 2010 brings up the question of whether or not this was caused by climate change, and if we can expect to see similar weather patterns in the future. The end of the blog post concludes that it would be extremely unlikely for so many extreme weather events to happen in one year without some kind of climate changing force behind it.

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24% of Employed Workers Did Some or All of Their Work at Home in 2010

A piece from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Editor's Desk shows that 24% of employed Americans did at least some of their work from home in 2010, as compared with 83% who did some or all of their work at their workplace. Employed men and women had similar distributions, with 22.9 percent of men and 24.5 percent of women working at least partly from home in 2010.

Multiple jobholders were roughly twice as likely to do work from home than single jobholders (39 percent to 22 percent); and perhaps unsurprisingly, self-employed workers were over three times more likely than wage and salary workers (64 percent to 19 percent). And while only 10 percent of employed persons over 25 years of age with less than a high school diploma worked at least some of the time from home in 2010, the percentage was larger among those with a bachelor's degree or higher, reaching 36 percent.

The piece summarizes findings from the American Time Use Survey.

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Gallup: Record-High Percentage of Americans Lack Confidence in Banks

A recent Gallup poll conducted over the telephone shows that a record-high 36% of Americans have "very little" or "no" confidence in U.S. banks. This is a 6% increase from last year; it marks the third consecutive year that more Americans say they have little or no confidence in banks, as compared with those who say they have "a great deal" or "quite a lot."

Historically, this has not been the case: "Prior to 2009, the percentage of Americans expressing very little or no confidence in U.S. banks was generally far less than the percentage expressing a great deal or quite a lot of confidence." Even "as recently as June 2007, before the recession began...more Americans had confidence in U.S. banks than had little or no confidence." Gallup has been measuring Americans' confidence in banks since 1979.Although confidence in banks is down in all regions since 2007, it has increased in the Midwest (+7%) and West (+6%) since last year. According to Gallup, "These improvements may be at least in part a result of the strengthening of the manufacturing sector, as it has been of particular benefit to the economy and companies in these regions."

Confidence in U.S. banks clearly remains low; Gallup writes that this poll's results indicate "that the banking industry, banking regulators, and other policymakers need to do more to improve the confidence Americans have in banking institutions."

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Are Social Networking Sites Beneficial to Our Well-being?

Social networking sites are becoming very popular all over the world, connecting people to past friends, new acquaintances and even starting revolutions. In a survey by the Pew Research Center, they take a look at the changing face of social relationships and how they are affected by social networking sites like Facebook and Myspace. When these types of sites first came on the scene, the majority of users were pretty young. Those ages 23-35 still make up the majority of users, but the composition of these online communities is starting to shift and now includes many more people who are middle aged or older.

Another interesting finding is how social networking sites are changing the way people relate and interact with each other, including how many close friends they have, how their friends are supporting them emotionally, and how trusting they are. Those who use the Internet, mobile phones, and social networking sites are more likely to trust others than those who don't use the Internet at all. They also discovered that Facebook users have an average of 9% more close friends, and scored higher when asked how much they receive emotional support, companionship, and instrumental aid. They are also much more likely to be involved in political activities such as attending rallies and persuading others to vote.

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Asian Population in New York City Tops One Million, Larger than Los Angeles and San Francisco Combined

A recent article in the New York Times centered on the rising Asian population in New York and its efforts to gain more political clout. Citing recent census data, the Times states that the Asian population in New York has exceeded one million for the first time ever, giving the city a substantially larger Asian population than either Los Angeles or San Francisco. The Asian population has been growing far faster than other racial groups in New York, increasing 32 percent since 2000, as compared with an 8 percent increase among Hispanics, a 3 percent decline among non-Hispanic whites, and a 5 percent decline in the black population during the same period.

But according to the article: "Asians in New York City still remain underrepresented in elected office, community leaders say, with only one Asian-American in the State Legislature, two on the City Council and one in a citywide post." Furthermore, "Advocates contend that public and private money for their community service organizations does not match the population’s size or need."

One of the reasons the article gives for underrepresentation of Asian Americans in political offices is the diversity of the Asian population in New York, and how that diversity hinders their progress and potential for collaboration. The Times writes: "Asian-Americans in New York trace their roots to dozens of countries, and speak more than 40 languages and dialects...Older immigrants may have lingering prejudices against other nationalities, rooted in historic rivalries among their native countries. Some organizations, particularly well-established Chinese ones that were in the vanguard of the fight for immigrant rights during the last century, may be hesitant to share hard-won gains. And South Asian groups have sometimes felt muscled aside or ignored by their more established East Asian counterparts."

It has not been easy for these different organizations to find common ground, but as the Asian population grows, there are signs that things might be changing: "As the number of Asians has soared, scores of groups that have long operated independently, and sometimes at odds, have begun pulling together into pan-Asian coalitions in recent years, particularly as younger generations and newer arrivals have seen the advantages of unifying."

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Who is to Blame for Failed Debt Negotiations?

As debt looms over our heads and the debt limit draws ever nearer, people are getting antsy and starting to point fingers at who they think is to blame for failed negotiations about raising the debt limit. In a survey of 1,003 Americans done by the Pew Research Center, most people agreed that the Republicans in Congress are to blame. When broken down into political affiliations, 58% of Republicans blame the Obama administrations, and only 22% blame Republicans. 72% of Democrats say that Republicans are to blame, while 34% place blame on the Obama administration. Independents are pretty neatly divided on the issue, with 34% blaming the Obama administration, and 36% blaming Republicans in Congress.

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Changing Opinions About Keeping Troops in Afghanistan

With recent news of Obama's plan to pull troops out of Afghanistan, many people have the war on their minds, and they expressed their opinions in this survey from the Pew Research Center. For the first time, the majority of American citizens would like to see troops pulled out of Afghanistan instead of being kept there until the situation is more stable. Support for taking troops out of Afghanistan has grown for every demographic group since this time last year. The majority of every group now believe that taking troops out is the best thing to do. The only exception is Republicans, with a slight majority (53%) believing that we should keep troops there until the situation stabilizes.

One reason for this sudden shift in thought might be due to the optimistic opinions that most hold about U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. Across the board, the majority of Americans believe that using military force was the right decision in this situation. Most also believe that the U.S. will achieve its goals, and that the military effort is going well. Despite these positive opinions about the U.S.'s military involvement, not as many people believe that Afghanistan will be able to maintain a stable government.

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More Blacks Leaving East Coast, Midwest Cities for South

A recent New York Times article focused on a black family's return to Atlanta from New York, where they had migrated in the 1950s as part of the so-called Great Migration. According to census data, from which the Times took its information, "the economic downturn has propelled a striking demographic shift: black New Yorkers, including many who are young and college educated, are heading south." And it's not just New York: "The percentage of blacks leaving big cities in the East and in the Midwest and heading to the South is now at the highest levels in decades, demographers say."

Still, the move south appears to be strongest among New Yorkers. "About 17 percent of the African-Americans who moved to the South from other states in the past decade came from New York, far more than from any other state, according to census data. Of the 44,474 who left New York State in 2009, more than half, or 22,508, went to the South." Those migrating south are typically from middle-class enclaves, and some fear their departure is having a negative impact on the communities they leave behind, "helping to depress already falling housing prices. [Their departure] is also depriving the black community of investment and leadership from some of its most educated professionals, black leaders say."

The move south is seemingly a reverse of the aforementioned Great Migration, "which lasted roughly from World War I to the 1970s and saw African-Americans moving to the industrializing North to escape prejudice and find work." But with economic opportunities in the north scarce, and the desire of many blacks to reconnect with their past in the south, the north appears to have lost its appeal for many black Americans.

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Ed Nelson

Ed Nelson is Professor of Sociology and Director of the Social Research Laboratory (SRL) at California State University, Fresno. As the Director of SRL, part of the College of Social Sciences, he provides leadership for the lab and mentorship to the student researchers who work and study at the center. He is the campus representative and serves in multiple capacities in the Social Science Research and Instructional Council (SSRIC), which consists of centers on California State University campuses. Also, Nelson serves as the ICPSR Official Representative for California State University, Fresno, and served on the ICPSR council from 1996 to 2000. In 2005, he was the recipient of William H. Flanigan Award in recognition of his many contributions to ICPSR as an Official Representative.

Nelson has been involved in the development of instructional materials for over 30 years. He has led workshops in SPSS and SDA and has contributed to teaching resources by creating modules, classroom exercises, as well as online textbooks. Additionally, he has submitted and reviewed resources on Merlot, an NSDL pathway; ICPSR’s SIMI project, now a part of the Online Learning Center; and TeachingWithData.org which is also an NSDL pathway. His most recent publication is SPSS for Windows Version 16.0 A Basic Tutorial, written with Linda Fiddler, Laura Hecht, Elizabeth Ness Nelson, and James Ross, and published by McGraw Hill.

Nelson strives to bring quality data to students in his department and college through his work with SSRIC and SRL. He says that there has been a great improvement in the availability of reliable teaching resources for introducing students to the concepts that can be illustrated using data. Today, faculty can access resources that have been written by other faculty for use in their own classrooms. And data-related resources that can be found on sites like SSDAN and OLC and many others can be easily taken into the classroom.

Currently, Nelson teaches Critical Thinking about Society, a three credit course required for student majoring in Sociology and offered to satisfy a general education requirement at California State University, Fresno. In part, the students learn how to develop and write a hypothesis, create a table from provided data, test their hypotheses, and report what they have learned. This class is taken before the students take research methods or statistics class.

Nelson says that “students gain a sense of accomplishment when they develop a hypothesis, test it, see the results of their work and its outcome, and articulate that in a written format.” Further, he said, ”the hypothesis-building process is the best way for students to lay a foundation upon which further research skills can be built.” And having that experience early in their college career is a real plus when pursuing a social science degree, he added.

Nelson began teaching at CSU, Fresno in 1973 and earned his PhD in Sociology at UCLA in 1968.

Facebook to Pass Yahoo Inc., Top Online Display Advertising Dollars in 2011

According to a recent Reuters article, Facebook's U.S. advertising revenue will total approximately $2.2 billion in 2011, consisting of a 17.7 percent share of the U.S. market for graphical displays that appear on websites. This is an increase from Facebook's 12.2 percent share last year and vaults Facebook to the top spot in online advertising revenue, which formerly belonged to Yahoo Inc. According to Reuters, "the figures underscore the growing clout of Facebook, the world's No.1 Internet social network."

The overall U.S. display market's growth in 2011 is projected at 24.5 percent, and Facebook is not the only company reaping the benefits. Writes Reuters: "Internet companies such as Yahoo, Google Inc and Microsoft Corp are competing for those advertising budgets, while new players such as online coupon company Groupon are offering marketers alternatives to traditional online display ads." Google will earn an estimated $1.15 billion from U.S. display ads in 2011, up 34.4 percent from last year.

The article is based on an eMarketer report.

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Republicans Starting to Shift Their Thinking

In the past, Republicans had been known for wanting to get involved in international affairs instead of focusing solely on issues at home. Now, in the face of a large budget deficit and growing national debt, foreign aid and war seem a little less affordable. This survey done by the Pew Research Center shows how opinions have shifted over the years. In 2004, most Democrats were against getting involved in international affairs, and independents as well as liberal Democrats were split between wanting to get involved and not wanting to get involved. Republicans were the only group where the definite majority wanted to be active in world affairs. Now, the Republicans have changed their mind and all political groups agree that we should be worrying more about our own problems.

Throughout the past decade, Republicans have chosen to stay involved in international affairs, but that has been changing a lot over the past few years. As of May of 2011 about an equal percentage Republicans, Democrats and Independents agreed that the U.S. should "mind its own business".

As far as foreign aid goes, a large majority of Republicans (83%) agree with democrats and independents that we should reduce the amount of foreign aid in order to reduce the deficit. On the other hand, only 56% of Republicans think we should reduce our military commitments overseas.

In 2010, most people agreed that we should keep troops in Afghanistan until the situation has stabilized. As of May 2011, that majority has shifted and now favors the removal of troops as soon as possible. Both Democrats and Independents agree with the majority now, and agreed with them in 2010 as well. Republican opinion, on the other hand, hasn't changed much over the past year, with the majority still believing that we should stay in Afghanistan until it has stabilized.

Although republicans still maintain many of the same opinions that they have had in the past, they are starting to focus more on problems at home instead of those abroad. This could be because of a shift in their thinking, or they could just be feeling the heat from the burning issues we have had to confront in the face of a growing national debt.

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Fatherhood: The Evolving Role

Pew Research Center’s recent report entitled “A Tale of Two Fathers” shows that although fathers who live with their children are more involved in their lives than ever before, the share of children (younger than 18) living apart from their fathers has more than doubled over the past half century. In 2010, more than a quarter (27%) reported living apart from their fathers, significantly larger than the 11% living apart from their fathers in 1960. In comparison, the percentage of minors living apart from their mothers increased only slightly.
According to Pew Research Center’s report, the absence of fathers from the home is strongly correlated with race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status.
Whereas 21% of white fathers live apart from their children, the likelihood of living apart from one’s children is more than double for black fathers (44%), according to the report. Socioeconomic status, as measured by educational attainment, was also found to be strongly correlated with fathers’ living arrangements. Whereas nearly 40% of fathers who did not complete high school live apart from their children, only 7% of fathers who are college graduates live apart from their children.
The Pew Research Center conducted a survey of attitudes towards fatherhood, as well. Most Americans (69%) feel that living with a father is integral to a child’s happiness. Interestingly, the share that says the same about having a mother in the home is only slightly higher (74%).

Fathers who do live with their children are playing a more active role in their lives than previously. The Pew Research Center found a substantial increase in the number of hours fathers residing with children spend with their children. In 1965, married fathers residing with their children younger than 18 years spent an average of 2.6 hours per week caring for their children. Time spent caring for children rose gradually for twenty years, reaching an average of three hours per week in 1985. By 2000 this number had more than doubled, with married fathers residing with their children under 18 years spending an average of 6.5 hours per week caring for them. The report finds that, on average, fathers living with their children in 2010 devoted 6.5 hours per week to caring for them.

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Congressional Approval Rate Falls to 17%

According to June 9-12 polling by Gallup, Congress' approval rate has dropped seven points since May, to 17%. A rate of 17% is closer to poll results in March and April, when it was at 18% and 17%, respectively, and it continues--as it has since January 2010--to register below 25%. Although the survey was conducted during the Anthony Weiner scandal, Gallup proposes that the decline "more likely reflects the end of the rally in support for the government after the death of Osama bin Laden."

Gallup has been measuring American approval of Congress since 1974; in that time, the smallest percentage of Americans who approved of Congress' job performance was recorded this past December, when the approval rate fell to 13%. Since 1974, the congressional approval rate has only fallen below 17% three times, all in the past three years and a signal, according to Gallup, of "the recent negative turn in Americans' views of Congress."At 25%, Democrats are more likely to approve of Congress than Republicans (14%) or independents (13%), but approval rates are low among all three groups. Writes Gallup: "Unless conditions in the United States improve and Americans become more charitable in their ratings of Congress, the 2012 elections may result in another shake-up in Congress' membership, although with divided control of the legislative branch, it is not clear which party would be hurt more."

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What Americans Think About the Recent Political Sex Scandals

Political sex scandals pervade the news headlines, but are there actually more scandals recently, or are they just being discovered more often now than they were before? In a recent survey done by the Pew Research Center and the Washington Post, participants were asked whether they thought these recent scandals were due to lower moral standards, or if there are just more people getting caught because of greater scrutiny. The majority of those surveyed believe that politicians are simply being caught more often. Of the 19% who believe that politicians have lower moral standard, most say that it is because positions of power tend to corrupt people, while the rest say it is because positions of power attract those types of people.

The majority of people from all genders, age groups, and political affiliations agree that politicians just get caught more often. Slightly more older people than younger people believe that politicians have lower moral standards, and more democrats than republicans believe that they get caught more often. Also, slightly more women than men believe that they get caught more often.

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Interactive Maps Available on NPR Website

U.S. Foreclosure Rates

The NPR website now has interactive maps that allow you to see national and state-wide trends for foreclosure rates, unemployment rates, and household income. The most recent data relates to the foreclosure rates, which are from March of this year.

County foreclosure rates lower than 1 in every 150,000 properties are considered low, moderate is up to 1 in every 700, and high is over 1 in every 700. The highest foreclosure rates are in the Southwest, California, Florida, and Michigan. It is hard to define trends using this map considering that many counties have no data available, especially in the Midwest.

U.S. Unemployment Rates

Data for unemployment rates across the U.S. was taken from December of 2010. Rates are broken down into less than 5%, 5-10%, 10-15%, and more than 15%. The areas with the highest unemployment rates seem to be scattered across the West and and along the East coast.

Median Household Income

The data for this map is also from 2010. Income was divided into 5 different levels based on percentiles. Most of the wealthy families appear to by clustered on the East coast, in the West, and scattered through some states in the Midwest. High concentrations of lower-income families can be found in the South, in parts of the Midwest and in parts of Texas and New Mexico.

Life Expectancy in the UK

The Guardian, a UK newspaper, recently published online a piece about the UK's improving life expectancy for men and women. While the life expectancy for men rose to 77.9, that for women rose to 82. Compared to the 2003-2005 period, the life expectancy for men rose by 1.4 years, while that for women rose by 1.1 years.

The statistics about life expectancy also demonstrated, however, the regional variations, especially the disparities between the North and South. The Glasgow region in particular has among the country's lowest life expectancy; low enough, in fact, to be compared with that of Albania and Palestine. Other regions displaying low life expectancy were the Western Isles of Scotland, and Liverpool, England. On the other hand, Kensington & Chelsea show the highest life expectancy, figuring at 84.4 years for males, and 89 years for females. The greatest improvement was in Westminster, where the life expectancy for males frose by 4.7 years and that for women 3.5 years.

Men are 68% likely to reach the age of 75 and the likelihood for women is 79%.

Experts are quick to note, however, that middle and upper class individuals are concentrated disproportionately in the south, contributing to the north-south disparity in life expectancy. Among other themes that factor into the low life expectancy in Glasgow are unemployment, poverty, industrial decline, and poor health.

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New York City Voters Think Rep. Weiner Should Remain in Position, But Disapprove as 2013 Mayoral Candidate

Hours after the media got wind of U.S. Representative Anthony Weiner’s questionable online activity, which included posting an inappropriate photo of himself on Twitter intended for a direct message to a woman other than his wife, a NY1-Marist Poll of New York City voters found a simple majority (51%) to believe that Weiner should remain in his position as congressman to New York’s 9th district. Less than a third of New York City voters (30%) disagreed with the majority opinion, believing that he should step down from his position. The remaining 18% of those polled were undecided in regards to what Weiner’s next move should be.

However, the majority (56%) of voters want Weiner, who was a potential candidate for the New York City 2013 mayoral election, to bow out of the race.

A notable majority (61%) of New York City residents believe that Weiner’s actions were unethical but not illegal. A little over 10% of New York City voters (13%) believe that Weiner’s actions were illegal. The same proportion stated that Weiner did nothing wrong. Weiner’s public apology was met mostly with skepticism, with 64% of New York City voters stating that his apology was insincere and that he only apologized because he was caught. Almost a quarter (24%) of New York City voters disagrees, reporting his apology to reflect a sincere sentiment of regret.

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Americans Report Hearing Mostly Bad News About the Economy

According to a survey taken June 2-5 of this year, more Americans are hearing bad news about the economy than any other time in the past 2 years. 50% report hearing a mix of good news and bad news, and 46% report hearing mostly bad news about the economy. When asked which news topics they followed most closely, 20% said they mostly listened to news about the economy, and 12% said they followed the war in Afghanistan. That week in the news, 13% of the coverage was about the economy.

When this survey information was broken into categories based on gender, age, income level, and political affiliation, some patterns started to surface. More men than women reported hearing bad news about the economy, as did people who are over 50 years old. When they looked at annual family income, those who earn more than $75,000 a year were most likely to hear bad news about the economy. There was a large difference between the opinions of Republicans and Democrats, with only 34% of Democrats and 57% of Republicans reporting hearing mostly bad news.

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Dow Closes at Lowest Mark Since March

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 11,951.91 Friday, falling below 12,000 for the first time since March 18, as reported by the New York Times. It dropped 172.45 points, or 1.42 percent, and was down 1.6 percent for the week, marking the sixth consecutive week there has been a loss. Christine Hauser of the Times writes that "analysts attributed [the decline] to a sense that the global economy was slowing and that European debt problems were entrenched."

Financial and energy stocks declined the most; "energy stocks were more than 1.5 percent down after reports that Saudi Arabia would increase oil production," according to Hauser. Major European indexes also fell by over one percent, and China's trade surplus in May was reported lower than had been anticipated. The euro also declined, likely a response to the debt issue in Greece, "as European policy makers continued to appear unable to reach a common view" on how to move forward.

According to the article, there are no signals that stocks will rebound next week.

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Americans Cutting Back Slightly Less as Summer Nears

In recent weeks, Americans have been less likely to report that they are cutting back on their weekly spending, potentially paving the way for a rise in consumer spending during the summer season. Still, the change is a relatively small one, and a large majority of Americans still say they plan to cut back; the majority has dropped from 70.4% to the current 67.8%. Since Gallup began the polling series in June 2009, "about two-thirds of Americans or more have said they are cutting back on spending, ranging from a high of 73% in July 2009 to a low of 65% in December 2010." Although the wealthiest Americans are less likely to say they are cutting back on spending, nearly half of those making over $240,000 say that is their intention.

According to Gallup, there has been a correlation between people saying they are cutting back and actual spending. Although the "statistical relationships are not extremely strong," it appears "that when there are changes in the percentage of Americans telling survey interviewers they are cutting back on their spending, actual spending -- at least as measured by Gallup's spending measure -- does, in fact, change in the following weeks." The low of 65% of Americans reporting plans to cut back last December, for example, coincided with increased consumer spending during the holiday season.

Writes Gallup: "History suggests that at least a modest rise in spending could ensue in the coming weeks." Last summer, however, self-reports on cutting back on spending dropped for only a short period of time, and the expected rise in spending this summer could be similarly short-winded.

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Americans Pessimistic about Government and the Economy

Results from the latest New York Times poll show that Americans' opinions about the economy and the way the government is handling things have suffered greatly in the past few months. When asked generally about how things are going in the country, most people feel that we are on the wrong track, and few people think that the economy is getting better.

When it comes to the economy and the budget deficit, Most people disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy and the budget deficit. However, the majority of people feel the same way about the Republicans in Congress.

When asked if providing health care for the poor is a government responsibility, most people answered "yes". When the responses were broken down by party, they discovered that Democrats and Independents side with the majority, while Republicans mostly believe that providing health care for the poor is not a government responsibility.

One of the major debates in the search to find a solution to the budget deficit is between raising taxes or reducing government spending on programs that benefit the public. When polled on which they would prefer, Americans overwhelmingly responded that they would rather see a decrease in federal spending than an increase in taxes. Republicans were most adamant, with 87% preferring a decrease in spending. Even though most people are against raising taxes for the average American, most agree that it would be beneficial to increase taxes for families who make over $250,000 a year.

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Oil Consumption and Production

A brief piece from the Economist highlights the oil trends around the world during the past decade. The article argues that the demand for oil exceeds oil production, following significant increases in consumption especially in Asia.

Prices of crude oil increased to $118.59 a barrel on June 8. The recent OPEC meeting in Vienna did not reach a conclusion on production quotas. Despite the failure to reach a consensus, Saudi Arabia has been planning to raise production levels by 1 million barrels a day.

One of the difficulties surrounding OPEC's meeting was the unique situation in some OPEC member states. For example, Libya has failed to produce much oil ever since February when the civil rest escalated into violence. This situation ultimately leaves to other nations the responsibility of filling the gap in oil production. On the other hand, other member nations like Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE support the insurgents in Libya.



Over the past ten years, China's consumption of oil increased by about 4 million barrels a day. This increase accounts for 40% of the world's rise in oil consumption. Also, for the first time ever, worldwide consumption superseded production by 5 million barrels per day.

Low Gains in Nonfarm Payroll Employment in May, Following 3 Months of Solid Improvement

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its report last Friday on the employment situation in May, 2011, and the news was not as encouraging as in previous months. Only 54,000 jobs were added in May, following an average gain per month of 220,000 over the previous three months. Improvement continued in professional and business services, health care, and mining; were relatively unchanged in major private-sector industries; and employment figures in local government continued their downward slide. Also relatively unchanged were the number of unemployed persons, at 13.9 million, and the unemployment rate, which sat at 9.1 percent. The number of long-term unemployed--those who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more--increased by 361,000 to 6.2 million. The BLS Editor's Desk summarized some of the report's findings here.

As mentioned in an earlier blog post, stocks dropped following negative economic reports for the month of May, and economists were disappointed by figures much lower than they had anticipated.

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Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Receive Blame for National Debt

In a recent article, Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds that Americans see the price of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as the primary contributor to the United States’ debt. A majority (60%) says that the cost of the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan has contributed “a great deal” to the size of the nation’s debt. The second-most cited cause of the nation’s debt was the condition of the national economy; 42% say that that this contributed “a great deal” to the size of the nation’s debt. Only 24% say that increased domestic spending has contributed greatly to the nation’s debt, and even fewer (19%) cite the tax cuts made over the past ten years.

In a May 25-30 survey of 1,509 adults, the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press presented respondents with a series of possible proposals for reducing the nation’s debt. With 73% disapproving, a proposal to reduce state funding for education and roads was met with the most opposition. Almost three-quarters supported a proposal to reduce U.S. assistance to foreign countries. Two-thirds (67%) support a proposal to make a larger portion of high earners’ income taxable under Social Security tax. Nearly as many (66%) approve of a proposal to raise taxes for those with an annual income over $250,000. Proposals to reduce overseas military commitments and limit corporate tax deductions also received substantial support, with 65% and 62% approving of each, respectively.

Survey Shows Little Excitement for Republican Candidates

In this report about the Republican candidates for the upcoming 2012 election, a survey was done to find out who the most popular candidate is so far. The results showed that there is no clear-cut favorite. Participants were first asked if they had heard of each candidate, and then asked if there was a good chance, some chance, or no chance that they would vote for them. The top three that people had heard of were Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich. Of those, 17% said there was a good chance that they would vote for Mitt Romney, 14% would vote for Sarah Palin, and only 9% would vote for Newt Gingrich. 23% said there was a good chance that they would vote for Herman Cain, but that is out of the 33% people had actually heard of him. When the same survey was analysed using only responses from republican voters, the results were similar, with Mitt Romney taking the lead.

Another part of the survey was about the traits that people like and dislike in presidential candidates. Almost half of the people surveyed are more likely to support a candidate that had served in the military. Other favorable qualities include having been a governor or a business executive. Most people are less likely to support candidates that have never held an elected office, and 61% would be less likely to support a candidate that does not believe in God. Traits that most people agree would make no difference in how they vote include being a woman, black, or hispanic, and having been divorced. Having used marijuana in the past, being Mormon, or being homosexual are also traits that many say would not sway their vote.

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Elections and Rural Bias

Every four years, America's chief politicians make a pilgrimage to Iowa and New Hampshire, two states that in to a large extent influence who will be America's two presidential nominees. Iowa and New Hampshire, of course, don't have the most delegates of any state, but the media coverage, money and momentum that candidates receive from high finishes in these first two states often makes them unbeatable (the 2008 election was unique in this regard, with both primaries competitive well past Super Tuesday). In 2007, Brown economists Brian Knight and Nathan Schiff set out to quantify exactly how much more influence voters in Iowa and New Hampshire had in the 2004 Democratic primary than voters in other states. Knight and Schiff noted that anecdotal correlations between candidates who win Iowa or New Hampshire and those who win the nomination are too simplistic because those correlations could reflect underlying candidate strength and examined changes in polling data in late states as a response to the outcomes of primaries in early states. In short, they found primary voters and caucus goers in the earliest states had eight times the influence of those in the latest states.

It's not just the nomination system that biases American policy toward rural areas. States with small populations (which tend, of course, to be rural) are overrepresented in the Senate and Electoral College. To take the most extreme case, a citizen of Wyoming has 69 times the influence in the United States Senate as a citizen of California (that is to say, Wyoming's 544000 residents have the same representation as California's 37 million) and 3.7 times the influence in the Presidential election (three electoral votes per 544000 residents versus 55 per 37 million residents).

David Leonhardt in the New York Times argues that these systems of unequal representation have profound policy consequences. He notes that early-voting states are more likely to receive pork than late-voting ones if they supported the winning candidate, and that the Iowa caucuses have turned ethanol subsidies into an untouchable third rail despite little evidence they contribute much to solving the climate crisis. Most of all, he argues that America has an "anti-urban policy bias," focusing on the issues important to rural and small-town voters even though he believes that "national prosperity depends on urban prosperity."

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Gas Prices

A Los Angeles Times blog post reports that for the first time in almost three months, the average price of gasoline in California fell below $4 per gallon. While the national average has been sitting near $3.77 a gallon for the past couple weeks, the highest prices in the 48 states are found in Illinois and Michigan. The average cost of a gallon of gas in Illinois is $4.146, and that in Michigan is $4.116.
Mississippi has one of the lowest average gas prices in the country, at $3.518 a gallon. The current average prices in Mississippi and California demonstrate nearly a 6% decrease from a month ago. On the other hand, Illinois' price indicates only a 3% decrease over the past month, and that for Michigan fell by a mere 2% over the same time period.

The high gas prices in the Midwest, however, are not unusual considering the recent events in the region's oil industry. Three refineries in Illinois are experiencing problems, and several nearby pipelines have been shut down to continue with repairs.

An interesting way to monitor the fluctuation in gas prices is by following the Daily Fuel Gauge Report by AAA. Not only does the website provide the average gas prices of states around the country, but it also depicts these prices over time and visually on a map.

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