Coal Consumption Falling Fast

Louisa, Kentucky relied on coal to power not just its homes, but also to sustain its residents' livelihoods.  Today, though, Eric Lipton of the New York Times reports that many coal towns like Louisa may abandon coal in favor of natural gas.  The black, sooty rock has been the subject of costly new pollution laws and environmentalists' scorn, not to mention the surge in natural gas production (spurred on by fracking, a new and effective extraction method) that has drastically depressed gas prices.  Michael G. Morris, the Chairman of American Electric Power, is looking to switch production from coal to natural gas, and his decision does not appear to be isolated.  In 2008, coal consumption stood at well over 1,000 million short tons, but by 2013, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects just 800 million short tons in consumption per year.  Additionally, while coal consisted of 53% of electricity generation by fuel in 1990, the projections for 2013 put that share at just 39%.

3 in 4 Americans Feel College is Too Expensive

In a recent survey, the Pew Research Center presented the American public with this statement: "College costs in general are such that most people can afford to pay for a college education." Overwhelmingly, respondents disagreed with the statement.  75% did not agree, and only 22% felt that college costs are affordable.  Despite this response, the rapidly rising cost of college tuition has not swayed parents' feelings on the importance of a college education.  94% of parents want their children to go to college, even though 57% of Americans feel that colleges fail to offer students a valuable education that is on par with the high costs.  Only 5% of the public feel that college is of "excellent" value to students.  Much more respondents fell in the middle-ground, with 77% saying that college was of "only fair" to "good" value.  Additionally, though, it seems that college graduates are happy with their decision to enroll.  86% of graduates believe their investment in tuition was beneficial, and American Community Survey data supports this belief.  In 2009, the median income for college graduates was $46,931, whereas the median income for those with only a high school diploma was $27,381. 

Housing Construction Starts to Rise Slowly

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development issued its monthly press release on May 16^th regarding residential construction in April.  Privately-owned housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000, up 2.6% from March, and up 29.9% from April a year ago.  This rate is up only marginally since February 2009, when housing construction hit rock bottom and the annual rate was only 583,000.  Before the recession, the housing starts rate was well over 2,000,000.   The seasonally adjusted annual rate of building permits, an indicator for future construction, was at 715,000.  This rate was down 7% from March, but chalk the decrease up to the volatile apartment category, which dropped 23%.  The building permit rate was also 23% above the April 2011 estimate of 578,000.

For Pollsters, Finding Respondents Gets Harder Every Year

Pew Research Center reports that societal and technological changes have made it increasingly difficult to contact and persuade respondents for the purpose of surveys.  For a typical telephone survey, the contact rate (percent of households in which an adult was reached) was 90% in 1997, but today, it is just 62%.  The cooperation rate (percent of households contacted that yielded an interview) was 43% in 1997 but is only 14% in 2012.  Despite the declining rates, Pew maintains that polls continue to supply precise data.

Income Inequality a Growing Problem in Urban China

A study recently featured in the Journal of Comparative Economics examines income inequality in urban China. Capital income increased during the late 1980s and continued to rise until 2009. The researchers found that the share of capital income between classes was grossly unequal. For urban residents, capital income accounted for less than 2% of their total income. In contrast, for the top 1% in China, capital income accounted for more than 30% of their total income. Additionally, the share of capital income for the top 1% is increasing rapidly. In 1988, capital income only made up 10% of the top earners income, but in 2007 this figure increased to 37%. The researchers also examined the influence of capital income on income inequality by analyzing the Gini coefficient for the eastern, central, and western regions of China. Although there appeared to be no statistically significant difference between the central and western regions, the Gini coefficient was higher in the eastern region, indicating that the eastern region has more extensive income inequality.

41% of Americans Identify as "Pro-Choice"

Gallup’s survey of Americans regarding their views on abortion has revealed an interesting trend.  Whereas in 1995, 56% of Americans identified as “pro-choice” and only 33% identified as “pro-life,” today, the percentages have almost completely flip-flopped.  Gallup reports that, currently, 50% of Americans regard themselves as “pro-life,” while only 41% are “pro-choice.”  That said, American’s views on the legality of abortion do not represent their self-identifications.  52% believe that abortion should be legal under certain circumstances.  On the other hand, the more polarizing views that abortion should be legal under any circumstances or illegal in all cases garnered only 25% and 20% of Americans’ opinions respectively. 

Child Mortality Rate Plunging Throughout Africa

The Economist’s daily chart from May 19^th highlighted child mortality rates among 20 nations in Africa.  According to Gabriel Demombynes and Karina Trommlerova of the World Bank, since 2005, 16 of 20 African countries on which detailed living condition surveys have been conducted experienced a drop in child-mortality rates.  Of the 20 nations, only Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Nambia, and Liberia endured an increase in the child-mortality rate.  12 nations had a decrease of at least 4.4% a year, and Senegal and Rwanda boasted a drop of nearly 10% a year.  In fact, the plunge in child mortality is actually speeding up.  Throughout most African nations, the rate is decreasing twice as fast compared to the early 2000s and 1990s.  

Research paper competition winners announced

ICPSR is pleased to announce the winners of our 2012 Research Paper Competitions.

Quentin Karpilow of Kenyon College won the Undergraduate Competition with his paper "Racial and Ethnic Threats in Pretrial Release Processing." The paper used State Court Processing Statistics, 1990-2006, County Characteristics (2000-2007), 1998 and 2000 Uniform Crime Reports, and the 1999 National Jail Census to examine pretrial release outcomes for adult defendants charged with drug felonies according to their racial or ethnic backgrounds and various community and incarceration settings. Karpilow was a 2011 ICPSR Summer Intern and has earned a B.A. in Mathematics and Economics. This paper was selected as the second-place winner of the 2012 North Central Sociological Association Student Paper Competition for Undergraduates.

Zornitsa Kalibatseva of Michigan State University won the Master's Competition with her paper "A Symptom Profile Analysis of Depression in a Nationally Representative Sample of Asian Americans." The study uses the National Comorbidity Survey to examine the differences in symptoms of depression between Asian Americans and European Americans.

The first-place award in the Resource Center for Minority Data Paper Competition was won by Amanda Mireles of Princeton University for her paper "Cultural Capital Investments: Concerted Cultivation and the Academic Achievement of Hispanic Kindergarten Students." Mireles analyzed data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study to measure academic achievement of Hispanic students. She earned a B.A. with High Honors in Sociology, received Certificates of Proficiency in African American Studies and Latino Studies, and is the recipient of the 2011 Isidore Brown Thesis Award for this paper.

Second-place in the RMCD competition went to Danae Ross of Wayne State University for her paper "Black Feminism and Hip Hop: A Cross-Generational Disconnect." The paper used the 1993 National Black Politics Study to investigate the impact of a strong feminist perspective on the likelihood of listening to rap music among black women. Ross is a McNair Scholar, has earned a B.A. with High Honors in English and Sociology, and has been accepted in the Ph.D. program in African Diaspora Studies at the University of California at Berkeley. This paper was selected as the third-place winner for the 2012 North Central Sociological Association Student Paper Competition for Undergraduates.

The first-place winners received $1,000; the second-place prize is $750. All the papers used data from the ICPSR or RCMD archive.

ICPSR is holding three competitions this year:

• The ICPSR Research Paper Competition, for analyses on any topic using data from the ICPSR General Archive or Thematic Collections.
• The IFSS Research Paper Competition, for analyses on any topic using data from the Integrated Fertility Survey Series.
• The RCMD Research Paper Competition, for analyses on issues relating to minorities in the United States, including immigrants, using data from the Resource Center for Minority Data.

All competitions are open to undergraduate and master's students, and recent graduates. See the competition Web site for details. Deadline for submissions is January 31, 2013.

Persistent URL: http://icpsr.blogspot.com/2012/05/research-paper-competition-winners.html

Minorities Now Account for The Majority of Births in the U.S.

This past Thursday, the Census Bureau announced that white births now account for less than half of all births in the United States.  For the first time, minorities account for the majority of births (50.4%).  Dr. William H. Frey, SSDAN Director and senior demographer at the Brookings Institution, explained, “This is an important tipping point.”  He described the trend as a “transformation from a mostly white baby boomer culture to the more globalized multiethnic country that we are becoming.  Sabrina Tavernise of The New York Times writes that Hispanics, blacks, and Asians accounted for 26%, 15%, and 4% respectively of births in the year ending in July 2011.  Still, though, whites represent 49.6% of all births – the single largest share of any ethnicity.  Dr. Frey also discovered another interesting fact: minorities accounted for a whopping 92 percent of all population growth in the decade ending in 2010.  You can read the full New York Times article here, which goes more into detail on historical implications and on what else may have contributed to this fascinating trend.

Data in Review: Undergraduate Catches Error in Beer Consumption Figure

An editorial written by Australian undergraduate Luke Mansillo to the Economist aptly drew attention to somewhat misleading figures regarding Australia’s beer consumption used in an Economist article published May 5^th.  According to the May 5^th article, beer consumption in Australia has plummeted to just 4.5 litres (7.5 pints) per person annually, a 65-year low.  Howeve, in his editorial, Mansillo points out that, while Australian beer consumption is in fact at a 65-year low, the figure used in the article was litres of pure alcohol content.  According to Mansillo, the figure in terms of volume is much higher at 98 litres (172 pints) per person annually.  The Economist has subsequently clarified this in a correction in which both figures are included.   

In Response to Gay Marriage Support, 1 in 4 Americans View the President Less Favorably

Following President Obama’s endorsement of legalized gay marriage, the Pew Research Center released a survey on how the announcement has affected Americans’ opinions of the President.  Overall, 52% say their opinion has not changed, 25% say they now view the President less favorably, and 19% say they view the President more favorably.  Many in the media suspected the African American community’s support of President Obama would decrease; however, the survey shows that 68% of African Americans were unaffected by the announcement, 16% view the President more favorably, and 13% view the President less favorably.  Among young adults ages 18-29, and adults aged 30-49, 22% view the President more favorably.  These two age groups were the most likely age groups to view the President more favorably with the announcement.  Among seniors aged 65 and over, 42% now view the President less favorably.

"Sand Rush" in Midwest Expected to Bring Jobs

A recent Wall Street Journal article discusses what it refers to as a "sand rush" in the Midwest due to an increase in demand for sand by U.S. oil and natural gas-producers.  The sedimentary material is a necessary component in the process of "fracking," in which sand is "injected deep underground to prop open fractures in shale formations and allow oil and gas to flow out."  The chart from the article shows the increase in demand for "fracking-sand" since 2008.  As the chart shows, demand has increased from roughly 6 million tons in 2008 to nearly 30 million tons in 2011.  According to the article, this increased demand is expected to bring more jobs to the Midwest, but there resistance from residents due to environmental concerns may play a role in the development of this industry. 

Majority of Muslims in Middle East Hold Unfavorable View of al Qaeda

On April 30^th, the Pew Research Center reported on Muslim support throughout the Middle East for al Qaeda.  Overwhelmingly, Muslims are unsupportive of al Qaeda.  The survey covered the nations of Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Turkey, and Lebanon; within these countries, 71%, 77%, 55%, 73%, and 98% hold unfavorable views towards al Qaeda, respectively.  The survey also investigated the trends in confidence for Osama bin Laden.  From 2003 to 2011, Muslim support of Osama bin Laden in every single nation surveyed dropped; however, from 2010 to 2011, only one nation – Jordan – saw Muslims’ confidence of bin Laden fall (one percentage point change).

Half of Americans Support Legal Gay Marriage

Gallup ran a poll on May 8^th which determined that fifty percent of Americans support legal gay marriage.  This percentage dropped three points since last year; however, this year marks just the second year since Gallup began tracking this question that at least 50% of Americans supported legal gay marriage.  On the other hand, 48% believe gay marriage should not be permitted.  In 1996, when Gallup first began tracking the gay marriage debate, only 27% supported legalizing gay marriage and 68% were opposed.  65% of Democrats believe gay marriage should be legal, while only 22% of Republicans approve.  This stark contrast between political parties characterizes the hotly contested debate in America, and this poll underscores the divisiveness of the issue.

"Disappointing" April Jobs Report

A recent Wall Street Journal article discusses what it refers to as a "disappointing jobs report" for April.  While the unemployment rate decreased to 8.1%, this drop can largely be attributed to the 342,000 people who left the labor force over the same time period.  The interactive graphic from the article, which includes three graphs, highlights several unemployment trends since the recession began in 2008.  In one graph, the percentage change in payroll employment from 2008 to 2012 is compared to four other periods of recession.  As the graph shows, all jobs had been recovered by year five of the previous recessions but have still not been recovered since the recession beginning in 2008.  Another graph shows the percentage change in payroll employment since 2008.  As this graph indicates, construction has made little improvement at -25.8% while the education and health sector have improved by 9.1% since 2008.  Lastly, the third graph shows the percent change in payroll employment since 2008 by gender.  According to the graph, men were hit worse initially by the recession but have since made a more rapid recovery.  Currently, however, women are only 2.6% below pre-recession employment while men remain 4.6% below.

Low Population Mobility in European Union

A recent Economist article discusses the low cross-border population mobility within the European Union despite large variations in the unemployment rate across European nations.  This variation in unemployment rate can be seen in the first chart from the article, which shows Spain at approximately 23% unemployment as of March 2012 and Austria at less than 5%.  However, as the second graph from the article shows, few Europeans migrate within their countries and even fewer across countries in the European Union relative to the US, Canada and Australia.  The article suggests that this low mobility could be a result of language barriers, higher transaction fees and taxes for home-buyers and disincentives to move from large unemployment benefits, among other things.

62 Percent of Parents Provide Financial Assistance to Their 19- to 22-Year-Old Children

On May 3^rd, USA Today focused on a University of Michigan study regarding the proportion of parents who provide financial assistance to their 19- to 22-year-old children.  The lead author of the study, Patrick Wightman, found that 62% of young adults collect funds from their parents.  About 42% of parents assist with bills, 35% pay for a portion of tuition, and 23% help with vehicle costs.  Additionally, a little more than one in five parents contribute to their children’s rent and 11% provide their kids with loans.  82 % of wealthier parents (those making $99,910 or more a year) supported their children with some form of financial assistance, compared to 47% of lower income parents (those making less than $37,274).  However, regardless of wealth, parents who provided money to their children sent an equal share – about one tenth – of their income.

One in Two Youth in Spain is Unemployed

Business Insider’s Chart of the Day for May 2^nd highlighted a graph from Scott Barber and Thomson Reuters depicting youth unemployment rates in Europe.  Greece and Spain both possessed the highest rate, with more than one in two youth being unemployed.  These two nations are followed by Portugal Italy, and Ireland, with youth unemployment rates of 36.1%, 35.9%, and 30.3% respectively.  Germany, on the other hand, has weathered the economic recession quite well, and its youth unemployment rate has actually decreased since the recession began.  In comparison to the United States’ 16.4% rate, Germany, Malta, Austria, and the Netherlands are the only nations in the EU27 with a lower youth unemployment rate.  Overall, the Euro area possesses a 22.1% youth unemployment rate.

Private Sector Workers Faring Better than Government Employees

According to Gallup’s recently released Job Creation Index for April, job growth appears to be up in the private sector with more workers reporting that their employers are hiring rather than firing, bringing the private sector index to +25. In contrast, more government employees report higher levels of firing than hiring, bringing its index down to -7. Regionally, the South is experiencing the best market conditions, with 38% of those surveyed reporting that their employers are hiring and only 15% reporting that their employers are laying off workers. The East is faring the worst. It has the lowest Job Creation Index in the U.S. with +16. In the East, only 34% report that their employers are hiring whereas 18% report that their employers are letting go of workers. Nationwide, the Job Creation Index is up from +18 in March to +20 as of April, with 36% reporting that their employers are hiring, the highest figure since August 2008.

SSDAN Director Dr. William H. Frey Points to Minorities as Key Factor in 2012 Presidential Election

On May 1^st, SSDAN Director Dr. William H. Frey released a report for the Brookings Institution citing what he believes to be a key factor in the upcoming presidential election: the minority vote. The first aspect Dr. Frey highlights is the disparity between eligible voters and the total minority population.  For every 100 Hispanic residents in America, only 44 are eligible to vote, whereas for every 100 white residents, 78 are eligible to vote. 

Additionally, Dr. Frey points to the greatly increased voter turnout rate among minorities in 2008 compared to 2004.  Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians all experienced an increase in voter turnout between 2004 and 2008, but what makes this trend significant is the fact that minorities overwhelmingly vote in favor of the Democratic candidate. 

Finally, Dr. Frey emphasizes the idea that "minorities will account for a slightly larger share of eligible voters than in 2008. At the same time, white support for the Republican candidate may be greater than in 2008. Which dynamic will prevail?"  To answer this key question, Dr. Frey illustrates three different scenarios, each taking into account different assumptions of white and minority voting patterns.

In the first scenario, Dr. Frey conducts a simulation based on the 2008 turnout and margins for whites and minorities.  In this scenario, President Obama would win the election handily, garnering 358 electoral votes to Governor Romney's 180 (270 is needed to win). 

The second scenario applies the 2004 turnout and margins for whites and minorities to the simulation.  In this situation, Governor Romney wins a neck and neck election, receiving 286 electoral votes to President Obama's 252. 

Lastly, Dr. Frey generates a third scenario, which takes into account the 2004 turnouts and margins for whites, and the 2008 turnouts and margins for minorities.  In this final scenario, President Obama receives 292 electoral votes to Governor Romney's 246. 

In the full report, Dr. Frey details the historical voting patterns of minorities, and he provides a more in depth look at what to expect for the minority influence on the 2012 election.  Finally, for more information on historical voting patterns among various demographics, SSDAN recently released a brief detailing voter turnout in the past half-century. 

One Third of American Nonretirees Expect Social Security to be Major Source of Retirement Funding

Gallup reports that 33% of American nonretirees predict Social Security will be a major source of retirement funding.  This percentage has increased since the recession; in 2007, 27% believed Social Security would prove vital to their retirement fund.  57% of retirees depend on Social Security as a major source of income, while only 33% of retirees rely on a work-sponsored pension plan.  In addition, nonretirees are more likely than retirees to utilize a retirement account (46% to 24% respectively) – such as a 401(k) or an IRA – to be the major source of funding their retirement.  This percentage has decreased six points since the recession.  Gallup’s Chief Economist, Dennis Jacobe, believes stock and retirement losses have led to many of these trends.  Also noteworthy is the fact that 38% of nonretirees expect to retire comfortably – a new low.

Net Migration From Mexico to U.S. Hits Zero

In the past four decades, 12 million Mexican immigrants came to the U.S., just over half of whom were unauthorized.  Recently, though, this flow of immigration, which represented the largest flow between any two countries in the world, has reversed.  Whereas from 1995 to 2000 the net flow of immigration into the United States via Mexico was positive, from 2005 to 2010, that flow reversed.  The Pew Research Center released a study investigating immigration between the bordering nations, and pointed to “the weakened U.S. job and housing construction markets, heightened border enforcement, a rise in deportations, the growing dangers associated with illegal border crossings, the long-term decline in Mexico’s birth rates and broader economic conditions in Mexico.”  In 2011, about 6.1 million unauthorized Mexican immigrants lived in the U.S., down from a peak of almost 7 million in 2007.  Over the same time period, the number of authorized Mexican immigrants rose about 200,000.