How Low are American Taxes?

Following up on our post from Sunday, we find another post in the New York Times Economix blog, this time from Reagan and Bush administration official (and born-again Keynesian) Bruce Bartlett, who presents information supporting the argument that the United States is a low-tax nation. Federal tax collections as a percentage of GDP are to be 14.8% this year, the lowest level in more than sixty years. They were 14.9% in 2009 and 2010. Since the end of World War II, tax collections have averaged 18.5% of GDP.

Low taxes are especially beneficial to corporations. As has been widely discussed, statutory corporate tax rates in the Untied States are among the highest in the industrialized world, but they are also riddled with loopholes. As a result, the amount of corporate taxes actually paid is quite low. At 1.3% of GDP, corporate taxes are just one-third of what they were fifty to sixty years ago and about one-third of the OECD average (see chart above).

There can be little doubt that the United States is, by the standards of its own history and its international peers, a low-tax (and low-government-service) nation. But, does Bartlett overstate the case? Perhaps. He only focuses on federal taxes. All nations collect taxes at the sub-national level as well. American state and local taxes account for approximately another 10% of GDP, above the OECD average for sub-national taxes (see the chart below - where (l) means local and (s) means state, regional or provincial taxes). Even taking state and federal taxes together, American taxes are still quite low compared to other wealthy countries, but the issue is a bit more complicated than Bartlett suggests.



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Do We Need to Raise Taxes?

At the New York Times Economix blog, Princeton Professor Uwe E. Reinhardt argues that higher taxes are necessary to restore the United States to fiscal health. He begins with a chart from the Brookings Institution showing that the federal budget deficit for the next ten years is almost exclusively a result of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts and the lost revenue and increased demand for social services that resulted from the 2008 recession. He sees the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts as symptoms of a long-term willingness on the part of the American people to embrace tax cuts and new spending programs (Reinhardt notes the trillion-dollar Medicare prescription drug plan as an example of the later).

As a solution, he echoes the former conservative chair of the federal reserve Alan Greenspan who argues that to afford the government that most Americans now expect requires returning to 1990s-era tax rates, which would mean increasing taxes on all who pay income taxes. Such a solution is politically problematic as it violates President Obama's campaign promise not to raise income taxes on low and middle-income Americans and Republicans opposition to any tax increases.

Finally, Reinhardt notes that the United States is currently a low-tax nation by the standards of developed nations. The average nation in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) collects 44.8% of GDP as tax revenue; the United States collects just 26.1% (although it must be admitted that in other wealthy countries, the government pays for healthcare and higher education: large expenses for most Americans). Finally he confronts the idea that higher taxes impede economic growth, charting economic growth by noting that over the past ten years, there has been little evidence for that idea suggested by a transnational comparison of wealthy countries (although there are many problems with using this as any sort of definitive proof of the relationship between tax rates and growth).

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Hawaii Least Stressed State for Third Straight Year; Stressed States Clustered in West, Northeast

In 2010, Hawaiian residents were the least likely to report having been stressed the previous day, according to Gallup daily surveys that encompassed over 350,000 interviews. Only 30.2% said they experienced stress, as compared with the 45.1% of residents in Utah, the most stressed state this past year. 2010 marked the third consecutive year that Hawaiian residents were the least stressed; Utah and Kentucky have scored in the top two most stressed states the past three years.

States with over 40% of their residents reporting stress--what Gallup designates as the "higher" range for states--were mostly in the West and Northeast, although Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, and Kentucky were also within the higher range.



States that scored in the lower range--with under 38% of their residents reporting stress--were "primarily located in parts of the Midwest." Overall, 39.4% of Americans said they were stressed, similar to the percentages in 2009 (39.9%) and 2008 (38.8%).

Results suggest that stress is a "complex emotion" and that there is not a single factor--such as economic standing--that determines how stressed an individual, or a state as a whole, is. Writes Gallup: "That stress levels did not increase much during the recession provides additional evidence that Americans' definition of stress goes beyond economic experiences." Some of the most stressed states have relatively high income levels and health, and three high-stress states--Connecticut, Utah and Massachusetts--rate their lives highly.

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More Americans Concerned about Raising Debt Limit than Government Default

More Americans fear the consequences of raising the debt limit than a potential government default, according to the most recent national survey conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post from May 19-22. 48% of Americans say their greater concern is that raising the debt limit would increase government spending and lead to higher debt, as compared with 35% who say their greatest concern is that not raising the debt limit would lead to a government default and hurt the economy.

An even larger majority (60%) of Republicans fear more that raising the debt limit would lead to higher spending and a larger national debt, and 49% of independents share that view, with only 34% more concerned about a potential government default. Among individuals who identify as Democrats, however, 48% say their main concern is a government default, compared with 38% who take the opposite stance.But despite most Americans' willingness to take a stance on the issue, survey results show that the debt debate has not resonated with many of them. Only 25% of Americans say they have heard a lot about the debate, with 38% saying they have heard a little and 37% nothing at all. And many Americans do not claim to have a strong understanding of the issue's consequences:"Half of Americans (50%) say they feel like they understand the possible implications of not raising the debt limit very well (18%) or fairly well (32%), though nearly as many (47%) say they do not have a good understanding of what would happen if the debt limit is not raised."

And although more Americans say of greater concern is increasing the debt limit, large majorities fear both the consequences of raising the debt limit and failing to raise it. 77% say they are somewhat or very concerned that raising the debt limit would lead to higher spending and debt, while 73% say they are somewhat or very concerned that not raising the limit would cause the government to default and the economy to falter.
Republicans appear to feel more strongly about the issue than Democrats: 61% of Republicans say they are very concerned about raising the debt limit, as compared with 48% of Democrats who say they are very concerned that not raising the debt limit would lead to a government default.

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15-Year High in Measles Cases Reported

As reported in a Time article, so far this year (January-May, 2011), 118 cases of measles have been reported in the United States. This number is the highest measles count since 1996 and nearly twice the median number of cases for years 2001 to 2008. Cases were reported in 23 states and ages ranged from 3 months to 68 years. 40% of the cases required hospitalizations, 9 cases contracted pneumonia, and no deaths were reported.

Routine vaccinations eliminated measles in the U.S. in the 1990s but cases of the highly contagious viral disease are still reported annually, imported from countries where the disease is still endemic. Of the 118 cases, 89% were associated with importation from other countries (i.e. Americans traveling abroad and spreading measles when they return or foreign travelers bringing it into the U.S.). The spike in the number of cases reported this year is likely due to the rise in cases in South East Asia and Europe—especially in France where as many as 10,000 cases have been reported within the first four months of this year.

Routine vaccinations have been on the decline among some populations in the U.S. because of fears of vaccine safety and the false belief that vaccines trigger autism in children (see Time article about the fraudulent study that originally linked certain childhood vaccines to autism and served as a basis for the anti-vaccination movement). According to the CDC, individuals who refuse to complete vaccination put others at risk, especially infants younger than 1 year old who are too young to receive the MMR vaccine and rely on others around them to be vaccinated for protection. Because measles is a highly infectious disease, a large proportion of the population must remain vaccinated to ensure immunity to those who are not. That is, small lapses in coverage result in large outbreaks. The CDC reported that 9 outbreaks accounted for about half the cases in the U.S. The CDC reports:

Among the 45 U.S. residents aged 12 months−19 years who acquired measles, 39 (87%) were unvaccinated, including 24 whose parents claimed a religious or personal exemption and eight who missed opportunities for vaccination. Among the 42 U.S. residents aged ≥20 years who acquired measles, 35 (83%) were unvaccinated, including six who declined vaccination because of philosophical objections to vaccination. Of the 33 U.S. residents who were vaccine-eligible and had traveled abroad, 30 were unvaccinated and one had received only 1 of the 2 recommended doses.

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Think-Tanks Tackle Budget Deficit

The deficit hawk Peter G. Peterson Foundation, created to tackle budget issues in 2008 by Nixon-administration Commerce Secretary and investment banking billionare Peter G. Peterson, enlisted six think-tanks to come up with their solutions to the budget deficit. The Peterson Foundation funded think-tanks from the right-wing (Heritage Foundation and center-right American Enterprise Institute) to the centrist (Bipartisan Policy Center) to the left-wing (center-left Center for American Progress and Roosevelt Institution and the left-wing Economic Policy Institute) to solve a deficit projected to be severe in coming decades. Currently the Congressional Budget Office predicts that in 2035 the US government will spend about 35% of GDP and take in about 19% of GDP as revenue, and those numbers are based on the optimistic assumptions that all of the Bush tax cuts expire and that health-care cost growth slows. The six plans rectify that gap in different ways. Proposals suggest a nearly balanced budget spending anywhere from 18% of GDP under the Heritage Foundation plan to 28% of GDP under the Economic Policy Institute plan. The Wall Street Journal points out that the six plans -- which mimic plans presented by politicians (the Heritage Institution speaks for Paul Ryan, the Center for American Progress for Barack Obama and the Bipartisan Policy Center for the Simpson-Bowes Deficit Commission) -- struggle to find the common ground that Peter Peterson may have wished for. It is difficult to imagine conservatives agreeing to the tax increases proposed by the left or liberals to the spending cuts proposed by the right.

In addition to differences on total levels of spending, the think-tanks differ in their evaluation of the appropriate distribution of federal spending and federal taxation. On taxes, all of the groups want to close tax expenditures: loopholes whereby the government subsidizes through tax-breaks something they might similarly subsidize through direct spending. Four of the six -- including the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute -- want to institute a carbon tax, raising revenue while simultaneously tackling the problem of global climate change. All agree something must be done to control the cost of healthcare. But the agreements end there. In general left-wing groups would raise corporate taxes and taxes on high-income individuals while right-wing groups would not. On the spending side, right-wing groups squeeze spending cuts out of domestic programs while left-wing groups prefer to cut military spending.

Read the full reports for a more detailed breakdown of the numbers here.

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California Ordered to Reduce Prison Population

On Monday, May 23^rd, a New York Times article reported that the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the overcrowding of California’s prisons violates the Eighth Amendment’s ban on cruel and unusual punishment. In Monday's ruling on the case Brown v. Plata, the court ordered the release of more than 30,000 California prisoners over a two-year period in hopes of reducing the prison population to 110,000, 137.5 percent of the system’s capacity.

Since 1987, the United States prison population has almost tripled to 1.6 million, which has increased state spending on corrections by 127 percent (after adjusting for inflation). In recent years California's prison population has been as high as 160,000 inmates. Overall, however, that number has been declining; right now more than 140,000 inmates crowd the system. Approximately 46,000 prisoners, “‘equivalent to three Army divisions,’” are expected to be released within two years, although the state may ask for more time.

According to the article, “prison release orders are rare and hard to obtain,” and this ruling will unlikely have an effect on prison systems around the nation. However, the release of prisoners will likely have an impact on local communities, especially those lacking the resources for re-entry programs that can facilitate prisoner acclimation into society.

In his dissent, Justice Alito fears that the decision, “‘like prior prison-release orders, will lead to a grim roster of victims’”. Only time will tell.

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Country Remains Divided on Abortion Issue

Gallup polling shows that the issue of abortion continues to split Americans down the middle, though for the first time since 2008 a slight majority call themselves "pro-choice" (49%), just eking out those who identify as "pro-life" (45%). But despite this change, a majority of Americans (51%) still believe abortion to be "morally wrong," with only 39% asserting that it is "morally acceptable." Excluding 2006, when results showed Americans to be divided on the moral aspect of the issue, results regarding morality have been "fairly steady since 2002."
50% of Americans answer that abortion should be legal under certain circumstances, but this year's results suggest that more people are taking extreme views on the legality of abortion than they have historically. 27% answered that abortion should be legal in all cases while 22% wanted it to be illegal in all cases. The 49% combined believing in either of the extreme views was the highest since 1992.

Americans were fairly consistent in their opinions on abortion across gender. Age and partisan views appear to be a far more likely predictor of an individual's stance on the issue. 49% of adults 55 and older said they were "pro-life," as compared with majorities of those aged 35-54 (53%) and 18-34 (51%) who said they were "pro-choice." And while 68% of Democrats claimed to be "pro-choice," a full 67% of Republicans took the opposite stance, saying they were "pro-life."Writes Gallup about the results for 2011: "Americans' views on abortion held fairly steady over the past year, with the public still sharply divided over the 'pro-life' and 'pro-choice' labels."

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Report Shows Annual Wages in Largest Occupations Relatively Low

A report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that in May 2010, most of the largest occupations--as measured by the number of people who hold those occupations--were low-paying when compared with the national annual wage average. The BLS Editor's Desk writes: "Of the 15 largest occupations, only general and operations managers, registered nurses, and elementary school teachers (except special education) had average wages above the U.S. all-occupations average of $44,410 annually."

General and operation managers earned an annual average of $113,100; registered nurses $67,720; and elementary school teachers, excluding special education, earned an annual average of $54,300. On the bottom end of the average annual wages among the 15 largest occupations were food preparation and serving workers, including fast food ($18,610); cashiers ($19,810); and waiters and waitresses ($20,790). These last three were among the lowest paying of all occupational groups, regardless of size.

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Americans Charge Government to Assist in Personal Economic Circumstances

In March 2011, the Pew Economic Mobility Project conducted a follow-up poll to its 2009 survey of the public’s perceptions of economic mobility and the American Dream. According to the report, although Americans have become increasingly pessimistic about their own economic state, they are optimistic about the future.

The poll in March found that less than a third (32%) rate their own financial situation as either “excellent” or “good.” This percentage is down by 9 points since last year, and down 23 points since the recession began in 2007. Although a majority of Americans (55%) rate the national economy as “poor,” this number is an improvement from the 73% who rated the economy as “poor” two years ago.
Americans believe that the government has the potential to help prevent individuals from struggling economically by keeping jobs in America, improving the quality of elementary and high school education, reducing the government’s debt, and making college more affordable. A vast majority (90%) of Americans rated keeping jobs in America as either “one of the most effective” or a “very effective” way in which the government can prevent downward mobility. Despite the public’s belief that the government has the ability to produce better economic circumstances for individuals, most Americans feel that currently the government has done more to hurt than to help individuals who are trying to improve their economic position.

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Vast Majority Calls Favors More Stringent Wall Street Regulation

A Harris Interactive poll concludes that a staggering 83% of adults agree with the statement that "Wall Street should be subject to tougher regulation." Even so, a strong majority (62%) of adults agree with the statement that "Wall Street is absolutely essential" and most adults (55%) believe that Wall Street and its work benefits the country. However, those polled have little confidence in the people who run Wall Street, finding them to be untrustworthy and overpaid. An overwhelming 70% of adults believe that successful people on Wall Street, overall, are less honest and moral than other people. A large majority (75%) of adults are dissatisfied with the way in which Wall Street firms give bonuses to employees, and think that bonuses should only be given in periods when Wall Street is doing well overall and making profits. According to Harris Interactive there has been no improvement in Wall Street’s reputation over the past year and that opinions concerning Wall Street are significantly more negative and dissatisfied than before the financial crisis of 2008. According to Harris Interactive, Wall Street’s unfavorable reputation may extend beyond business and into the realm of politics. The report suggests that Republicans will need to distance themselves from their stereotypical affiliation with “big business […] and big banks” if they wish to appeal to voters.

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Foreclosed Homes Threaten to Further Weaken Housing Market

An article in the New York Times centered on the concern among some economists that the large number of foreclosed homes owned by banks and mortgage lenders will "deepen the housing slump and create a further drag on the economic recovery." The fear is that "the rise in lender-owned homes could create another vicious circle, in which the growing inventory of distressed property further depresses home values and leads to even more distressed sales."

Currently, big banks and mortgage lenders own over 872,000 homes around the country, are foreclosing on an additional million, and are expected to take control of another several million in the next few years. The impact is already being seen today, as "real estate prices have been declining across the country in recent months."

Lenders are having difficulty selling their properties quickly and at good prices, and in many areas they are repossessing more homes than they are selling. In Atlanta, lenders are repossessing eight homes for every one distressed home they sell; before the housing market's collapse, the ratio was typically one-to-one. According to the Times, "The reasons for the backlog [of unsold distressed properties] include inadequate staffs and delays imposed by the lenders because of investigations into foreclosure practices."

Concerns about the large foreclosed home inventories are real: economists predict that it would "take about three years for lenders to sell their backlog of foreclosed homes." Writes the Times: "As a result, home values nationally could fall 5 percent by the end of 2011, according to Moody’s, and rise only modestly over the following year. Regions that were hardest hit by the housing collapse and recession could take even longer to recover — dealing yet another blow to a still-struggling economy."

Says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, in the article: “Housing prices are falling, and they are going to fall some more.”

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Gallup: bin Laden Raid Increases Unpopularity of U.S. in Pakistan

Gallup polling of Pakistanis, conducted May 9-12, shows that the bin Laden raid has added to already largely negative views of the United States. Among Pakistanis who said they were aware of the U.S. raid, 64% claimed the action made them have a more negative view of the U.S., as compared with only 5% who said it made them have a more positive view.

Since Gallup began polling in Pakistan, views of U.S. leadership have never been positive, and although the 10% who approved of U.S. leadership was down from 18% in 2010, the change was not significantly different from polling results in 2008 and 2009. But disapproval of U.S. leadership has soared to 85%, a record and far higher than the 68% who said they disapproved in 2010--or the 60% who said so in 2008 and 2009.
The general disapproval among Pakistanis regarding U.S. leadership is clear from Pakistanis' expectations for future U.S. decisions: few believe that the U.S. will take what they believe to be the correct action--in this case, withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan. A large majority of those (79%) aware of the U.S. action to kill bin Laden believes the U.S. should withdraw its troops from Afghanistan now that bin Laden is dead, but only 57% think the U.S. actually will withdraw its forces. As a comparison, 36% of Americans believe that there is still important work to be done in Afghanistan and U.S. troops should be maintained there.Clearly, the poll suggests that diplomatic relations between the United States and Pakistan will not be easy moving forward. Gallup writes that the polling data "reinforce[s] the significant diplomatic challenges that lie ahead for both countries."

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Retail Salespersons and Cashiers Made Up Largest Occupations in 2010

An article from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Editor's Desk revealed that retail salespersons and cashiers were the occupations with the highest employment in May 2010. Together, these two occupations made up nearly 6 percent of total U.S. employment in 2010, and the ten largest occupations comprised more than 20 percent of employment. Other prominent occupations included "general office clerks; combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food; registered nurses; and waiters and waitresses."

Among larger groupings of occupations, office and administrative support jobs were the most significant, making up 17% of total employment. Following that were "sales and related occupations and food preparation and serving related occupations, which made up about 11 and 9 percent of U.S. employment, respectively." The article drew its information from a larger BLS report.

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Obesity is a growing epidemic in the United States, but nowhere is that seen more than in Holmes county, Mississippi. Holmes county has had the highest percentage of overweight and obese people for the past 6 years. 70% adults and 44% of children living in Holmes County are obese. Medical problems like diabetes, heart disease, and high blood pressure run rampant, but few are willing to admit that their weight is what is causing the problem. Even among those that know that their weight is a problem, it is hard to change old habits, and even harder when poverty prevents them from buying healthier food.

Mississippi is not only the most obese state, but also the poorest, and it isn't hard to see the connection between the two. Many people have food stamps and choose to buy cheap processed foods instead of fresh fruits and vegetables.

The info-graphic posted here is from the NPR news series, living large: obesity in america, and shows the correlation between poverty and obesity. It also shows how eating habits have changed over time, most noticeably the increase in proportion size and consumption of meats and sugars. People are also eating more cheese and a lot more fast food.

Graphics like these are a great way to connect the correlations between different data sets, and also make the data more accessible and easier to interpret for the average person. That being said, you do have to be careful and keep an eye out for false data. This one has some sources cited, but it is not clear which data came from which source. It's also possible with this type of information to see correlations that don't really have any causation, but they are fun to use to compare different types of data and find connections that you didn't know were there.

Down Huckabee, Race for GOP Presidential Nomination Without a Clear Leader

According to Gallup, following Mike Huckabee's decision to withdraw his name from consideration, the race for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination lacks a clear leader. A March-April 2011 trial heat ballot among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, adjusting for the withdrawals of Huckabee and Donald Trump, suggests the lead is shared by three politicians: Mitt Romney (20%), Sarah Palin (18%), and Newt Gingrich (11%).
But current voter preferences are based more in recognition than anything else. Those three politicians also lead potential GOP candidates in name recognition among the polled population, with 96% recognizing Palin; 84% Gingrich; and 83% of those polled recognizing Romney. Writes Gallup: "The most well-known candidates lead in nomination support at this point, while those who are not as well-known lag behind."

Evidence for this view--that recent, post-Huckabee trial ballot results can be attributed primarily to candidate recognition and not real, strongly rooted voter preference--was found not only in the three most well-known candidates leading the results, but also from the relatively low level of excitement voters expressed for those three candidates. Positive Intensity scores, meant to measure the intensity of a voter's support for his/her candidate, showed that voters are less excited about these three potential candidates than they had been about Huckabee. While Palin scored only 16, Romney 14, and Gingrich 13, Huckabee's final Positive Intensity score for May 2-15 polling reached 25. The Positive Intensity score is calculated by taking the percentage of voters who recognize and have a strongly favorable opinion of a candidate and subtracting from that the percentage of voters who recognize and have a strongly unfavorable opinion of the candidate.Among those candidates who registered lower name recognition, Herman Cain (29% recognition) and Michele Bachmann (21%) received the highest Positive Intensity scores with 24 and 21, respectively. For those two and others "in the Republican field beyond Palin, Gingrich, and Romney," the greatest challenge "right now is increasing their name recognition." For Palin, Gingrich and Romney, the goal must be to increase their Positive Intensity scores among voters, assuming all three participate--or remain--in the race.According to Gallup, only one thing is clear following Huckabee's departure: "There is no clear front-runner in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination."

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Student Loan Debt on the Rise

Mark Kantrowitz, publisher of Fastweb.com and FinAid.org recently came out with an analysis of the growing student debt for a college education. This information was published in an article on NPR.org on May 16, 2011. According to the projections for '08-'11 based on growing trends, the current average debt for student loans at graduation is about $27,000. The total student loan debt has also been growing, increasing by over $600 billion in the past 10 years and surpassing the amount owed in credit card debt.

To help deal with the increasing amount of debt that students are having to face after graduation, Kantrowitz suggests considering going to a cheaper school or getting degrees that are more profitable right out of college. With more than two-thirds of students graduating with debt from student loans, and taking into account today's fluctuating job market, paying back loans right out of college can prove to be difficult.

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Higher Education: Are We Getting Our Money's Worth?

A Pew Research Center survey of 2,142 adults conducted March 15-19, 2011 found a majority of Americans to be dissatisfied with the current state of the higher education system. The survey posed the question in terms of whether the higher education system is providing the value it should for the amount of money spent by students and families on tuition; 57% of respondents rated the value as either “only fair” (42%) or “poor” (15%). About 40% of college presidents state that the higher education system in the United States is headed in the wrong direction, according to a Pew Research Center survey of 1,055 colleg

e presidents conducted March 15-April 24, 2011.

Americans generally dissatisfied with the current cost of higher education; fewer than a quarter (22%) of the general public agreed with the statement “most people today can afford to pay for a college education.” College presidents show less concern about the price of college, with 42% agreeing with the same statement, “most people today can afford to pay for a college education.”
Although college presidents show less concern about the price of college, they are far from satisfied with the education system itself as well as with the students of these higher education institutions. Less than one-fifth (19%) of college presidents responded that they felt the higher education system in the U.S. to be the best in theworld. An even smaller percent (7%) responded that they think the United States will have the best higher education ten years from now.
College presidents’ dissatisfaction extends to their view of current students as well, with a majority of college presidents polled (52%) responding that today’s college students study less than students did ten years ago. College presidents’ may attribute this decrease in college students’ devotion to their studies to the extent to which secondary public schools are preparing students for college. The Pew Research Center survey found 58% of college presidents to hold the opinion that public high schools are doing a worse job of preparing students for college now than they did ten years ago.College graduates paint a more optimistic picture of today’s higher education system than do the general public and college presidents. A large majority of college graduates ages 18-64 (86%) say that they believe that college was a good investment.

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Gas Price Concern Hits Three-Year High

Since 2001, Gallup has polled Americans monthly on what they feel is the largest problem currently facing the United States. Results this month show concerns rooted in the economic state are higher than at any other point since 2009. Beginning in 2008 Americans’ concerns turned largely towards the economy in the wake of the country’s financial crisis. In February 2009 86% of respondents voiced some form of economic concern, the highest percentage to date. In May's poll the most frequently cited issues were the general state of the economy (35%) followed by unemployment rates (22%). According to Gallup, concern about the federal debt (17%) in April 2011 was at the highest it has been since 1996. Over the past month this concern has been cited less frequently, with percentage of respondents naming the federal deficit or debt down by 5%. In its May poll Gallup found concern about gas prices to be the highest it has been in almost three years, with 8% of respondents citing gas prices as the most important problem facing the country.

A poll by Pew Research Center and the Washington Post examined the current dissatisfaction with gas prices, asking respondents to express why they believe that gas prices have risen recently. The April 28-May 1 poll posed an open-ended question and respondents were asked to provide one answer. Nearly 1/3 of respondents blamed the soaring gas prices on some variation of oil companies’ greed. Nearly 1/5 of respondents pointed to current unrest throughout Libya and other states in the Middle East as the cause of rising gas prices.

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ICPSR internship selections announced

We are pleased to announce the 7th season of the ICPSR Summer Internship Program for undergraduates. The Internship is a very popular program and this year we received about 100 applications and will be supporting four interns in the following topical archives: Child Care and Early Education Research Connections (CCEERC), Data Sharing for Demographic Research (DSDR), Resource Center for Minority Data (RCMD), and National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NACJD).

 

The Interns will spend ten weeks at ICPSR from June 6 to August 12 during which they will:

 

• Complete a research project resulting in conference-ready posters
• Gain experience processing data and learn statistical programs
• Attend graduate level courses in the Summer Program
• Participate in a Lunch and Lecture series

 

The objective of the Summer Internship Program is to support ICPSR's strategic focus on undergraduates by promoting the effective use of social science research data. We will encourage the interns to pursue graduate studies or a career in the social or behavioral sciences. With luck, they will be future data depositors, summer program instructors, Official Representatives, or even members of the Council. We currently have thirty-one alumni of the Internship Program and they are currently attending graduate school or have begun a career in a social science.

 

The Internship Program will be managed by Abayomi Israel, with John Garcia of the Resource Center for Minority Data and Lynette Hoelter of Instructional Resources providing guidance and support as Research Program Mentors. Each Intern will be assigned an experienced Research Technician as their Data Processing Mentor. In addition, the interns will have the opportunity to receive additional graduate school advice and support on their research projects from the ICPSR Faculty.

 

We are very pleased to announce that the following students have been selected for the 2011 Summer Internship Program:

 

Jasmine Coleman, Drew University, Madison, NJ - Assigned to CCEERC (Christopher Greene - Processing Mentor)
Jasmine is a Psychology major graduating in 2013 with an interest in pursuing a graduate degree in clinical child psychology. Specifically, she is interested in the ways in which children are affected by parents with substance abuse problems. During the 2011 Spring Semester, Jasmine worked as a Research Assistant and Student Recitation Instructor while serving on numerous executive boards on campus and a member of the Emerging Leaders Program. As a sophomore, Jasmine has completed the required research methods sequence at her university and is looking forward to attending the ICPSR Summer Program courses in preparation for her Honors Thesis. Jasmine has a strong interest in research, and, this summer she looks forward to gaining a better understanding of data processing, working with other students that have a research interest, engaging in the research dialogue with persons from multiple perspectives, and sharing her research findings with students and faculty through the poster sessions. Jasmine enjoys movies, spending time with friends, and staying busy participating in a number of campus organizations.

 

Toby Flint, Hasting College, Hastings, NE - Assigned to DSDR (Kathryn Frania - Processing Mentor)
Toby is a Political Science and Economics double major and a Mathematics and History double minor graduating in 2012. After graduation, Toby plans to pursue a PhD in Political Science with an emphasis in Comparative Politics with a long-term career goal of teaching and researching. A subject that is of specific interest to him is that of quantitative comparative politics, especially in regards to the Middle East. He has worked with the World Values Survey and is interested in learning about similar datasets. Toby is interested in researching democratization theories, specifically that of partial democracies. Toby is very interested in having an opportunity to attend advanced classes in the Summer Program in preparation for graduate school. He currently serves as the Social Sciences Senator of his college and a Certified Peer Educator (BACCHUS) while being a member of the Hastings varsity tennis team. Toby is looking forward to networking with professors, staff, and undergraduates who are similarly interested in quantitative analysis.

 

Quentin Karpilow, Kenyon College, Gambier, OH - Assigned to NACJD (Justin Noble - Processing Mentor)
Quentin is an Economics and Mathematics double major graduating in May 2012 with a concentration in Statistics. He plans to attend graduate school in either Economics or Political Science with the long term goal of pursuing a career in academia. Quentin's academic interests include immigrant selectivity, migrant networks, immigrant education, and the impact of remittance flows on the socio-economic development of origin communities. In addition, his 2011 paper examining how the criminalization of U.S immigration law has impacted media representations of the transnational gang (Mara Salvatruha) has been selected for the National Conference for Undergraduate Research. He looks forwards to the hands-on data management experience that the ICPSR Summer Internship can grant him and attendance in the Summer Program. Quentin has worked as a Spanish translator, Residential Advisor, and statistics tutor. He co-founded the student run newspaper Kenyon Global News. In his free time, Quentin enjoys being a member of a jazz band and he has an interest in a myriad of sports.

 

Emmi Obara, Reed College, Portland, OR - Assigned to RCMD (Abay Israel - Processing Mentor)
Emmi is a Sociology major graduating in May 2012 with an interest in Race, Ethnicity and immigration issues. She is interested in pursuing her social science interest and is hopeful that this internship will provide her more exposure to career possibilities. Emmi has served as a mentor to new international students to support their cultural, social, and academic transition to the college. Recently, Emmi spent two semesters at the Universite de Rennes II in France, currently serves as a French tutor at her college, and worked as a Japanese to English translator. Emmi is interested in attending introductory statistical courses in the Summer Program to provide additional quantitative background. She has worked with the General Social Science and Add Health data sets and sees her summer at ICPSR as a way to advance her quantitative research method abilities. Emmi is a long distance runner and will complete a marathon just prior to her arrival to ICPSR and she enjoys cooking, specifically baking.

 

For more information about the ICPSR Undergraduate Summer Internship program, please see http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/content/ICPSR/internship/

Economic Recovery and Medicare's Weakening Prospects

The Medicare trustees' annual report has set off another series of heated political debate about President Obama's health care law, as the program's estimated expiration date was announced to be 2024, five years earlier than was projected last year. The report suggested that the cause of the earlier expected date for the exhaustion of Medicare's funds was the lagging economy. According to a New York Times article on the report, "Payroll tax revenues, which provide most of the money for Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund, were lower than expected last year because earnings were 'considerably lower than projected' and the economy was weaker than expected."
Robert Pear of the Times also commented: "The estimates...were immediately swept up into the already inflamed political battle over federal spending, debt and the future of entitlement programs," with Republicans insisting that the report showed the urgent need to shore up the finances of the Medicare program and with Democrats insisting that damage would have been worse if not for Obama's health care law.

Medicare and the Social Security program-- which moved its exhaustion date up one year, to 2036--together account for over one-third of federal spending. According to Pear, "It is inconceivable that politicians would allow either program to run out of money." However, the two public trustees, Charles P. Blahous III and Robert D. Reischauer, cautioned: “The financial shortfalls confronting both Social Security and Medicare are substantial and—absent legislation to correct them—quite certain.”

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A Polarized American Populace

A new poll from the Pew Research Center suggests that the most engaged Americans are highly polarized, disagreeing on nearly every issue and opposed to compromise. According to the results, even the majority of Americans whose political beliefs don't align directly with the left or the right are ideologically strict in their positions. For instance, post-moderns, who make up 13% of the population, believe in a limited social safety net and tend to blame African-Americans for problems in the black community, but are also very socially liberal in terms of religion and homosexuality.

As Tim Rutten at the Los Angeles Times points out, media consumption informs the ideological divisions between the left and the right. Liberals tend to consume news from sources such as NPR, CNN and The New York Times, while conservatives tend to get their news from sources such as Fox News.

There are, however, reasons to doubt the thesis put forth by the Pew Research Center. While Americans may give strong responses to opinion surveys, research suggests that however strongly they express their opinions, those opinions are rather superficial. Political science literature typically suggests that when asked more than once, respondents fail to give the same response to basic ideological questions. Many believe that Americans don't have strong opinions and respond nearly at random when asked for their political opinions.

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Pew Survey Finds Majority Believes Homosexuality Should Be Accepted, Increasing Percentage in Favor of Gay Marriage

According to the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, a majority of Americans (58%) believe homosexuality should be accepted, and not discouraged, by society. This finding becomes magnified the younger the survey population, with 63% of those under 50 years of age and 69% of individuals under 30 years of age saying that society should accept homosexuality. Among those older than 50 years of age, a smaller majority (52%) agrees that it should be accepted.

And although a majority of Americans do not favor gay marriage today, the survey shows increased support for the cause, with the 45% today who favor gays and lesbians being legally allowed to marry a large increase from the 35% who took that stance in April 2009. 46% of those surveyed said they were against same-sex marriage, 1% more than those in favor but noticeably less than the 54% who were against same-sex marriage in April 2009. The Pew Center writes: "Opposition to gay marriage has fallen by 19 points (from 65%) since 1996."

Opposition to gay parenting has also fallen in recent years, with the 35% today who say more gay parents is a bad development for society a big decrease from the 50% who viewed the trend negatively four years ago.Although majorities across most demographic groups were found to support societal acceptance of homosexuality, views toward homosexuality were found to differ significantly based on an individual's religious and political preferences, as well as his/her race and gender. While 67% of Democrats and 63% of independents say homosexuality should be accepted, only 40% of Republicans share that opinion.

And while 79% of the religiously unaffiliated, 66% of white Catholics, and 65% of white mainline Protestants believe homosexuality should be accepted, percentages are smaller among other religious groupings. Only 29% of white evangelical Protestants believe homosexuality should be accepted, while 63% believe it should be discouraged by society.

Among races, Hispanics (64%) and whites (58%) were found to be more supportive of homosexual acceptance than African Americans (49%). With regard to gender, women (64%) are more accepting than men (52%).

Findings are from the Pew political typology survey, released earlier this May.

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TV Industry, Marketers Change Tune, Start Focusing on Older Clientele

According to a piece in the New York Times, advertisers and media executives have started to rethink their strategy of primarily targeting younger consumers, responding instead to an economic reality that has older people vastly out-earning the young. Carter and Vega write: "Marketers like Kellogg’s, Skechers and 5-Hour Energy drink are broadening their focus to those 55 and up, who were largely ignored in most of their media plans until recently." They continue: "Network executives are planning to introduce shows created to have broad appeal, including to older viewers and the ad dollars they represent."

The reason for the shift in a strategy that has been in place since the 1960s is largely one of numbers. Younger people have been hit harder by the recession: the unemployment rate for individuals aged 20-24 is 14.2 percent and for those 25-34 9.4 percent, as compared with only 6.2 percent among people aged 55-64.

Median earnings between the age groups are similarly disparate, again favoring older age groupings. Individuals aged 45-54 and 55-64 had the highest median weekly earnings of any age segment, coming in at $844 and $860, respectively. On the other end of the spectrum, people aged 20-24 averaged weekly earnings of only $454, while those aged 25-34 had median weekly earnings of $682.

Carter and Vega write that until recently, "Once viewers reached 55, they were considered all but valueless." But older people--especially as the impact of the recession still lingers strong--have more money to dispense with than other age groups, consume a lot of media, and, according to Stephanie Papas, a source quoted in the article, "remain optimistic."

Since 2006, "the median age for audiences for every broadcast network has moved upward," and a NBC study suggested that older "consumers also seem to be spending on categories not traditionally associated with" their age group. This includes areas--such as electronics and digital devices--that are traditionally associated with younger consumers.

Says Alan Wurtzel, president of research for NBC Universal, about those who fail to begin targeting an older clientele: “You risk not only growth, but at some point you risk your brand.”

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Job Opening Level Continues Upward Trend But Still Trails Pre-Recession Figure

A recent report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the number of job openings continues to increase, following an upward trend that began when the recession--as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research--ended in 2009. The 3.1 million job openings in March just outpaced the 3.0 million in February, making it the first time since November 2008 that a job opening level at or above 3 million was sustained for consecutive months.

The job opening level's continued improvement is a positive sign, but it is clear that much progress must be made before it can reach its pre-recession figure, when there were 4.4 million openings in December 2007. A short summary of the new report may be found here.

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The New Rich?

Wealthy people were considered to be less hurt by the economic downturn than the poor and middle class were, yet a new study from marketing consulting firm Harrison Group suggests that consumer habits have changed in the aftermath of the economic downturn. In a study of Americans with an average annual income of $275,000, Harrison Group found that wealthy consumers were less willing to pay for the large markups on name-brand goods in the first quarter of 2011 than they were in 2010. While the survey found decreasing brand consciousness and increasing use of sales across the survey, the largest change came in response to a question on willingness to spend on stylish brands. In 2010, 51% agreed that they were willing to "spend more for designer brands because they [were] the most stylish and fashionable," compared to only 32% of consumers in the first quarter of 2011. The survey results represent only one financial quarter of each year, and seem strange since the economy actually improved between 2010 and 2011. If the trends continue, this would represent an important change in the behavior of high income consumers and, as a result, in the ways that high-end companies market to reach them.

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ICPSR internship selections announced

We are pleased to announce the 7th season of the ICPSR Summer Internship Program for undergraduates. The Internship is a very popular program and this year we received about 100 applications and will be supporting four interns in the following topical archives: Child Care and Early Education Research Connections (CCEERC), Data Sharing for Demographic Research (DSDR), Resource Center for Minority Data (RCMD), and National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NACJD).

The Interns will spend ten weeks at ICPSR from June 6 to August 12 during which they will:

•Complete a research project resulting in conference-ready posters
•Gain experience processing data and learn statistical programs
•Attend graduate level courses in the Summer Program
•Participate in a Lunch and Lecture series

The objective of the Summer Internship Program is to support ICPSR's strategic focus on undergraduates by promoting the effective use of social science research data. We will encourage the interns to pursue graduate studies or a career in the social or behavioral sciences. With luck, they will be future data depositors, summer program instructors, Official Representatives, or even members of the Council. We currently have thirty-one alumni of the Internship Program and they are currently attending graduate school or have begun a career in a social science.

The Internship Program will be managed by Abayomi Israel, with John Garcia of the Resource Center for Minority Data and Lynette Hoelter of Instructional Resources providing guidance and support as Research Program Mentors. Each Intern will be assigned an experienced Research Technician as their Data Processing Mentor. In addition, the interns will have the opportunity to receive additional graduate school advice and support on their research projects from the ICPSR Faculty.

We are very pleased to announce that the following students have been selected for the 2011 Summer Internship Program:

Jasmine Coleman, Drew University, Madison, NJ - Assigned to CCEERC (Christopher Greene - Processing Mentor)
Jasmine is a Psychology major graduating in 2013 with an interest in pursuing a graduate degree in clinical child psychology. Specifically, she is interested in the ways in which children are affected by parents with substance abuse problems. During the 2011 Spring Semester, Jasmine worked as a Research Assistant and Student Recitation Instructor while serving on numerous executive boards on campus and a member of the Emerging Leaders Program. As a sophomore, Jasmine has completed the required research methods sequence at her university and is looking forward to attending the ICPSR Summer Program courses in preparation for her Honors Thesis. Jasmine has a strong interest in research, and, this summer she looks forward to gaining a better understanding of data processing, working with other students that have a research interest, engaging in the research dialogue with persons from multiple perspectives, and sharing her research findings with students and faculty through the poster sessions. Jasmine enjoys movies, spending time with friends, and staying busy participating in a number of campus organizations.

Toby Flint, Hasting College, Hastings, NE - Assigned to DSDR (Kathryn Frania - Processing Mentor)
Toby is a Political Science and Economics double major and a Mathematics and History double minor graduating in 2012. After graduation, Toby plans to pursue a PhD in Political Science with an emphasis in Comparative Politics with a long-term career goal of teaching and researching. A subject that is of specific interest to him is that of quantitative comparative politics, especially in regards to the Middle East. He has worked with the World Values Survey and is interested in learning about similar datasets. Toby is interested in researching democratization theories, specifically that of partial democracies. Toby is very interested in having an opportunity to attend advanced classes in the Summer Program in preparation for graduate school. He currently serves as the Social Sciences Senator of his college and a Certified Peer Educator (BACCHUS) while being a member of the Hastings varsity tennis team. Toby is looking forward to networking with professors, staff, and undergraduates who are similarly interested in quantitative analysis.

Quentin Karpilow, Kenyon College, Gambier, OH - Assigned to NACJD (Justin Noble - Processing Mentor)
Quentin is an Economics and Mathematics double major graduating in May 2012 with a concentration in Statistics. He plans to attend graduate school in either Economics or Political Science with the long term goal of pursuing a career in academia. Quentin’s academic interests include immigrant selectivity, migrant networks, immigrant education, and the impact of remittance flows on the socio-economic development of origin communities. In addition, his 2011 paper examining how the criminalization of U.S immigration law has impacted media representations of the transnational gang (Mara Salvatruha) has been selected for the National Conference for Undergraduate Research. He looks forwards to the hands-on data management experience that the ICPSR Summer Internship can grant him and attendance in the Summer Program. Quentin has worked as a Spanish translator, Residential Advisor, and statistics tutor. He co-founded the student run newspaper Kenyon Global News. In his free time, Quentin enjoys being a member of a jazz band and he has an interest in a myriad of sports.

Emmi Obara, Reed College, Portland, OR - Assigned to RCMD (Abay Israel - Processing Mentor)
Emmi is a Sociology major graduating in May 2012 with an interest in Race, Ethnicity and immigration issues. She is interested in pursuing her social science interest and is hopeful that this internship will provide her more exposure to career possibilities. Emmi has served as a mentor to new international students to support their cultural, social, and academic transition to the college. Recently, Emmi spent two semesters at the Université de Rennes II in France, currently serves as a French tutor at her college, and worked as a Japanese to English translator. Emmi is interested in attending introductory statistical courses in the Summer Program to provide additional quantitative background. She has worked with the General Social Science and Add Health data sets and sees her summer at ICPSR as a way to advance her quantitative research method abilities. Emmi is a long distance runner and will complete a marathon just prior to her arrival to ICPSR and she enjoys cooking, specifically baking.

For more information on ICPSR's Undergraduate Internship program, please go to http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/content/ICPSR/internship/

Coverage of bin Laden Story Outpaced Interest

According to an article published by the Pew Research Center, the "near-record amount of news coverage" concerning bin Laden's death far outpaced interest in the story. The Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ) found that 69% of news coverage from May 2-8 concerned the raid in Abbottabad, Pakistan, even reaching 90% of all news on cable television. But a May 5-8 poll conducted by Pew showed that only 42% of people polled said they followed bin Laden's death more closely than any other news story that week.

In fact, 20% of those polled said they followed news about severe weather and flooding in the South and Midwest most closely during the same week. And the 42% who said they followed bin Laden's death most closely did not come near the 57% who said in mid-March that they followed the Japan earthquake and nuclear disaster most closely.
Many people recognized the discrepancy between interest and news coverage, as 43% of those polled said the bin Laden story received too much rather than too little coverage, as opposed to only 9% who said the opposite. An additional 42% said the amount of coverage was just right.

Concerning the actual bin Laden coverage, 57% said that its most interesting aspect was the chance of a retaliatory terrorist attack on the United States. 74% of the public received its news from a television, and this tendency was especially pronounced for people over 65 years of age, 87% of whom said they received their news from a television.

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Obama's Higher Approval Rating Not Translating into Improved 2012 Prospects

As has already been mentioned on this blog, polling three days after the death of Osama Bin Laden revealed a six-percent increase in President Obama's approval rating. But according to a recent Gallup article, increased approval of President Obama's job performance has not improved the President's chances at re-election in 2012. Among registered voters, 43% said they were more likely to vote for President Obama over an unnamed Republican, while 40% said they were more likely to choose the Republican over Obama. These results are essentially unchanged--the difference being statistically insignificant--from the 41% of registered voters who said in April that they were more likely to vote for Obama.Because Republicans--and to a lesser degree independents--provided most of the boost in Obama's approval rating following Bin Laden's death, more registered voters may approve more highly of Obama without lending him their support over a Republican in the 2012 election. According to Gallup, while Bin Laden's death improved many Republicans' views of the President, it "convinced few in this largely conservative voting bloc to switch sides in the 2012 general election."

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Decline in Muslim Support for Osama Bin Laden Preceding Death

As discussed in a recent Economist article, poll results from the Pew Research Center suggest that support for Osama Bin Laden had been waning in Muslim countries throughout the years leading up to the leader's death. While 70% of respondents in Palestinian territories said they had confidence that Osama Bin Laden was "doing the right thing in world affairs" in a 2003 poll, only a third of those questioned responded this way in a poll conducted just before the leader's death. A similar decline in support was also indicated in polls conducted in other Muslim countries. This article puts forward several explanations for this apparent decline in support, including Osama Bin Laden's lower profile in more recent years. The graph below charts the percent of respondents saying they had "a lot" or "some" confidence that Osama Bin Laden was doing "the right thing in world affairs" between 2003 and 2010. It includes poll results from Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey in addition to Palestinian territories. As the graph shows, there was a clear decrease in the Palestinian territories and some Muslim nations, including Jordan. However, some countries, such as Nigeria and Egypt, show a less marked decrease in support.

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Poker as Skilled as Baseball?

Steven Levitt and Thomas Miles, economists at the University of Chicago (though Levitt is far better known in lay circles for his pop-economics sensation Freakonomics) have a new paper published with the National Bureau of Economic Research arguing that poker is a game of skill. The seemingly superficial research could have substantial legal effects in the United States where online gambling on games of luck is illegal but gambling on games of skill is legal. Levitt and Miles looked at the World Series of Poker and found that players rated as highly skilled averaged a return of +30% while the others averaged a return of -15%. That, clearly significant, difference is comparable to traditionally recognized games of skill; it is a larger return on skill than would be expected for professional asset managers in financial markets. And while the higher skilled player beats the lower skilled player only 54.9% of the time, the paper's authors point out that is comparable to the 55.7% of the time that playoff teams beat non-playoff teams in next year's Major League Baseball season.



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Lies and Employment Statistics

Catherine Rampell at the New York Times Economix blog examines the rate of job growth necessary to recover the jobs lost during the recession in the United States. The short answer she provides is that there is no short answer. There are almost seven million fewer employed people than there were when the recession began in 2007. At the rate of job growth enjoyed last month (244,000 new jobs in the month) it would take 29 months to return to the level of employment of before the recession. But the population (and more importantly the working age population) is growing, so there ought to be more jobs than there were before the recession. We might examine the unemployment rate for a better picture of the nation's economic health, but that is misleading too. The unemployment rate is found by dividing the number of employed persons by that number plus the number of people actively looking for work. A recovery in employment can actually increase unemployment as previously discouraged workers are driven to return to the job search. Indeed that very situation occurred in April.

Perhaps then, it would be better to look at the unemployment rate in conjunction with the labor force participation rate: the percentage of the population over 16 working or actively looking for work. Essentially it is the proportion of the population accounted for by the denominator of the unemployment rate. That number is at 64.4%, lower than it has been for the last twenty-five years but much higher than it was in the 1970s. But back when the labor force participation rate was traditionally this low, many women didn't work outside the home. They weren't discouraged workers who had given up; they never intended to work. So to adjust for that we can look at the male-only labor force participation rate. When we do that we find that an unprecedentedly small number of men over 16 are participating in the labor force. The increasingly equal position of women appears to have masked fundamental problems in the labor market. However, for the same reasons that other projections might have been too optimistic, this measure of the labor market is unnecessarily pessimistic. Now the denominator is too large rather than too small. There is a reason that many prefer the unemployment rate to the labor force participation rate; many of those not actively looking for work are discouraged people who would like to work, but a large and growing number are not. The ratio of workers to retirees is falling as the population ages, meaning the labor force participation rate would fall even in conditions of full employment. It's also possible that as more people on the opposite end of that age spectrum opt for college and graduate school, they drive down the labor force participation rate as well. In search of an answer to how far the US economy is from full employment, we can only say that no statistic tells the whole story.

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Eight new Data-Driven Learning Guides available

ICPSR's Online Learning Center is pleased to announce the release of eight new Data-Driven Learning Guides (DDLGs).

Designed by teaching faculty and geared toward building data literacy in undergraduate classrooms, DDLGs are set up as lesson plans and contain a description and examples of the focal concept, the data needed for empirical application using basic statistical techniques, a guide to interpretation, and a summary of the exercise.

The new DDLGS are: 

• Civic Participation and Demographics in Rural China (using the Four County Study of Chinese Local Government and Political Economy dataset)
• Ethics and Politics (using data from an ABC News/Washington Post poll)
• US Foreign Policy towards Haiti 1994 (also ABC News/Washington Post poll data)
• Intergroup Relationships - Attitudes and Behaviors (using the Houston Area Survey dataset)
• Social Change (using the Longitudinal Study of Generations)
• The American Dream at the Turn of the 21st Century (Using the 1996 ABC News Listening to America Poll)
• Crime Victimization in the US (Using the National Crime Victimization Survey)

OLC now offers more than 40 DDLGs, and more are under development. They can be accessed here: http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/OLC/ . We appreciate any feedback or suggestions for new topics for DDLGs.

Gay Men More Likely to Have Survived Cancer

A new article in the journal Cancer finds that gay men are nearly twice as likely to report being cancer survivors than straight men are. However, sexual orientation is not part of cancer surveillance information, so researchers relied on self-reported health from the California Health Interview survey. As a result, it is still unclear why there are a disproportionately high number of gay cancer survivors. Either gay men are more likely to develop cancer in the first place (as some media headlines have seemed to suggest) or they are more likely to survive a cancer diagnosis. The BBC explains that "further research would be needed to determine if homosexual men were actually getting more tumors or had greater survival rates." The authors of the study, however, seem to lean towards the idea that gay men are more likely to get cancer than straight men (or than lesbian women, who have no significantly higher rate of cancer than straight women). The article notes that HIV infection -- substantially higher in gay men -- can lead to increased susceptibility to cancer and that HPV infection -- also high in gay men -- can lead to anal cancer.

Among those men who did survive cancer, there was no statistically significant difference in self-reported health between homosexual men and heterosexual men. However, bisexual women were 2.0-2.3 times more likely to report poor or fair health than heterosexual women.

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