Can Obama's second term outperform his first?
On President Obama’s inauguration day for his second term, the Economist explores the economic performance of two-term presidents since the start of the 20th century. A range of sources measured performance according to industrial production, federal debt, GDP, stock market, household income, unemployment rate, and real house prices. The overall score of each president’s second term decreases by an average of 4.2 percentage points from their first term score.
Don’t write off Obama’s second term yet, though. Franklin Roosevelt’s highly successful New Deal policies in his first term led to a substantially lower relative second term, and three of the eleven two-term presidents (including most recent Democratic president Bill Clinton) had higher economic performances in their second terms.
TeachingWithData.org is a partnership between the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) and the Social Science Data Analysis Network (SSDAN), both at the University of Michigan. The project is funded by NSF Award 0840642, George Alter (ICPSR), PI and William Frey (SSDAN), co-PI.
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