U.S. Department of Commerce Reports Large Decrease in American Durable Goods

The Department of Commerce released its monthly report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments this past Thursday.  In August 2012, new orders for manufactured durable goods fell $30.1 billion (13.2%) to $198.5 billion.  This decrease represents the most severe drop since January of 2009.  While the durable goods report is highly volatile and not representative of the economy on the whole, it does provide insight into the performance of manufacturers that produce high value-added goods such as cars, turbines, semiconductor equipment, computer products, and electrical equipment.  Additionally, the Census utilizes the report in its Gross Domestic Product estimates.  American durable goods manufacturers had previously enjoyed three consecutive months of increases, and the over $230 billion value of shipments in July 2012 marked the first time the figure had recovered to pre-recession levels. The drastic 13.2% reduction, while not necessarily the best indicator of long-term trends, can be utilized to make short-term earnings predictions regarding the industries represented in the report.  An important note regarding this report: civilian aircraft orders fell significantly, and burdened the overall figure.  Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft increased 1.1% in August, and this important portion of the report is a good barometer of American business; thus, despite the 13.2% overall drop, many manufacturers did in fact experience a healthy increase in orders.

Hospital Errors Kill 98,000 Americans a Year

Marty Makary, writing for the Wall Street Journal, highlighted the disturbing trend of errors in the medical field and the deadly consequences these errors lead to.  Based on data from the Institute of Medicine, hospital errors kill 98,000 patients a year, and 1 in 4 hospitalized patients are harmed in some fashion by hospital errors.  If hospital errors were a disease, they would be the sixth leading cause of death in America – ahead of Alzheimers.  Surgeons have even been known to operate on the wrong body part as frequently as 40 times per week. The issue of hospital errors is often overlooked due to the fact that hospital performance statistics are difficult to attain, and for the simple fact that the public is more than willing to trust a medical institution. 

Why the dangerously high number of errors?  Makary's analysis points to a lack of teamwork.  Many employees across America’s hospitals report poor levels of teamwork, an aspect of hospital dynamics that makes it difficult to recognize and prevent mistakes.  Makary suggests installing cameras, providing patients with online access to medical histories and charts, and simply opening a dialogue on the deadly consequences of medical errors as solutions to the problem.

Almost Half of Hispanic Population Concentrated in Ten Metropolitan Areas

Coinciding with National Hispanic Heritage Month, the Pew Hispanic Center released a report detailing the characteristics of 60 of the largest metropolitan areas by Hispanic population.  Using the 2010 American Community Survey, the report found that 45% of the Hispanic population in the United States is concentrated in just 10 metropolitan areas.  The 5.7 million Hispanics in the Los Angeles-Long Beach area account for more than 1 in every 10 Hispanics in the United States, with the New York-Northeastern New Jersey population containing 8% of the nation's Hispanic Population. 

The report goes on to say that in Miami and San Antonio, Hispanics make up over half of the population, and that the same is the case in eleven more of the sixty largest metropolitan areas by Hispanic population.  Included in the report is a breakdown of population by Hispanic origin group, with the largest origin group being Mexican-Americans at 65%.  The full report, as well as an interactive map, can be found here.

Violent Child Abuse On the Decline

A special report from the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics finds that during 2010 roughly 2.8 million “children age 17 or younger… lived in a household in which at least one member age 12 or older experienced one or more nonfatal violent victimizations during the year.”  The data does not specify whether the child was present during the abuse or whether he was the victim of the attack, but it does provide insight into how diminished, yet still widespread, the issue violent crime against children is.  In 2010, 3.9% of children fell into the category of having lived in a household where violent child abuse took place, but this percentage has fallen over 68% since 1993, when approximately 8.7 million children, or 12.6%, lived in a household that experienced violent victimization.  Violent crimes occurred in low-income households (less than $15,000 a year) and in urban areas.  Additionally, households headed by one parent or a nonmarried adult were more prone to experiencing violent child victimization.

South Sudan Makes Strides in Education

A report recently released by the World Bank shows positive trends in the educational system of South Sudan. Between 2005 and 2009, roughly 700,000 more children were registered for school. The chances of a child going to school are also up by 20% compared to 10 years ago. Although there is reason to be optimistic about South Sudan’s educational system, it is evident that South Sudan is still struggling to catch up to other African countries. The country still faces the challenge of reaching children in poor rural areas and increasing the quality of the educational system since each salaried teacher, on average, has 80 children in their classroom. Additionally, the state also faces the challenge of evenly allocating the teachers to the states. Only about 32% of the teachers in Jonglei, the largest and most populous state in South Sudan, are government funded and 84% are government funded in Eastern Equatoria.

Household Income Left Behind In Recovery

Rakesh Kochar, writing for the Pew Research Center, examined household income during the recent recession and recovery.  From 2007 to 2009, the median household income fell 4.2%, and while the economy began to turn around and businesses started to rebuild, incomes continued to drop.  From 2009 to 2011, as the U.S. embarked on a sluggish recovery, the median income failed to improve.  In fact, the median household income fell almost as much (4.1%) during the recovery years as during the recession.  After a 5.7% decrease in household income due to the 1973 recession, incomes salvaged a 2.3% increase in the following 2 year recovery period.  The 1980 to 1982 recession drove incomes down 5.0%, but in the subsequent two-year recovery, incomes rebounded with a 2.4% improvement.  This prolonged period of income losses reflects a greater trend from the past decade.  The highest median household income was $54,932 in 1999, and since then, that level has only been approached in 2007, when incomes were $54,489.  

Cigarette Use Declining in the U.S.

In the United States, smokers are lighting up less than ever.  Gallup reports that since the 1970s, cigarette smokers that smoke more than a pack a day have steadily decreased, reaching their lowest point yet measured.  This all-time low coincides with this year's tie with 2009 for lowest cigarette usage among American adults; Gallup reports that one in five  lit up in the past week.  To anti-smoking advocates looking forward, these surveys represent success with struggles on the horizon; the study underscores the fact that most smokers know the negative effects of tobacco use, decreasing the usefulness of media campaigns that highlight the negative effects of smoking.  This in turn makes recommendations concerning tobacco control programs being brought to CDC-recommended levels require further analysis.  The question remains as to whether spending more money to bring states into compliance would bring a significant impact on tobacco usage or not.

Energy Independence in the United States

The backdrop of the upcoming presidential elections in the United States has enabled the American electorate to hear the candidates' opinions on the issues, one of them being energy policy. Both Republicans and Democrats agree that energy independence is important.  Such independence would protect the United States from the risk of energy supplies from abroad encountering disruptions.

The concensus on building a more energy independent country has been around for years, transcending entire administrations and congresses. Contrary to expectation, however, is that petroleum imports are much higher today than they were 40 years ago. Of all petroleum products consumed in this country, 60% of them come from abroad, compared to 40 years ago when roughly 38% of petroleum products came from foreign suppliers.


This graphic from Slate Magazine illustrates the growing trend of importing oil products since 1973, along with the goals of three different presidents to develop greater energy self reliance. Ultimately what it depicts is the failure in the present day to meet any of these goals.  Any conversation between the presidential candidates on energy independence might be unlikely to see significant followup action.

Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage

On Wednesday, the Census released its yearly report on "Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2011."  Median household income fell for the fourth straight year to $50,054.  Men still earn more than women; the median income for men was over $11,000 more than for women.  Looking at various ethnicities, Asians possess the highest median household income at $65,129, followed by Whites with $55,412, Hispanics at $38,624, then and Blacks with $32,229. 

The recession's impacts on income were wide-ranging, and as a result poverty increased drastically.  While the poverty rate fell, it did so only slightly, dropping from 15.1% in 2010 to 15.0% in 2011.  Since 1965, the poverty rate jumped above 15.0% for just five years – 1982, 1983, 1993, 2010 and 2011. 

Lastly, health insurance coverage improved slightly from 2010; however, over 48 million continue to forego coverage.  15.7% of the population lacks health insurance.  This lackluster rate finds its roots in companies' inability to provide employer-based coverage, and in Americans’ inability to simply find a job.  With an unemployment rate that has doubled since the start of the recession and businesses around the country struggling to remain profitable while still providing health benefits, 11 million less Americans received health insurance through their jobs in 2011 than in 2000.  On the other hand, the number of people relying on government health insurance programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid, has shot upwards more than 31 million in that same timeframe.  

Manufacturing Sector Profits Down From 2011

The Department of Commerce released its quarterly report on the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector today.  Manufacturing corporations' profits totaled $149.0 billion in the second quarter of 2012, up $0.7 billion from the previous quarter, but down from the $153.4 billion logged in the second quarter of 2011.  Though profits have idled, they’ve still rallied significantly since posting losses of more than $70 billion in late 2008.  In fact, current profits are the highest experienced in the 21^st century other than the marginally higher 2^nd quarter in 2011. 

Looking Back at the Frontier

As NASA's Curiosity rover roams Mars' surface, pushing man's frontier into space, the Census Bureau looks back at the American Frontier with its graphic representation of the population growth from the late 18^th to late 19^th century.  In 1790, the population extended up and down the eastern seaboard - from southern Maine deep into South Carolina - but the frontier remained close to the Atlantic Ocean.  

By the Louisiana Purchase in 1803, the frontier extended into the western portion of the U.S., and population centers on the East Coast expanded rapidly.  In the middle of the 19^th century, Americans pushed the limits of civilization well into the Midwest and established burgeoning cities throughout the region.  The frontier remained at borders drawn in the Louisiana Purchase, but the populace was well on its way to filling in the gaps from the East Coast to the Midwest.  When the gold rush caught the attention of millions of Americans, the frontier finally reached the West Coast, and people across the nation tried their luck in the gold-rich rivers of California. Moving onto the late 19^thcentury, the population’s reach extended throughout the entire continental U.S., and though gaps remained in the Midwest, the Superintendent of the Census declared the frontier to be nonexistent.

Housing Prices Still Low, But Sales Fail to Pick Up

While housing prices have stabilized, the quantity of one-family homes sold throughout the U.S. continues to fall to levels unseen in decades.  Though prices continue to rebound, the median cost of a single-family home is still at its lowest in 8 years ($227,000).  The drop in price, however, has not motivated Americans to buy homes.  The Department of Housing and Urban Development’s estimates the sales of new single-family houses at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 372,000.  Though up 25% from July of last year, housing sales haven’t been this low since before the Census began tracking the figure in the 1963.  Sales fell 76% from 2006 to 2011, and have yet to show significant periods of recovery.  With a record low number of houses starting construction this year, and an unemployment rate still above 8%, the recession’s lingering consequences still hinder a sales rebound.  With that said, prices have fallen three straight months; will relatively low prices incite a rebound in the housing market? 

Religious Belief and Crime

In a study covering 67 countries conducted by Azim Shariff at the University of Oregon and Mike Rhemtulla at the University of Kansas, the authors compared crime rates to the proportion of citizens who believed in heaven versus hell.  Citizens of the various countries were asked if they believed in either heaven or hell, and the researchers subtracted the percentage of heaven-believers by the percentage of hell-believers; the following remainder represented the country’s “rate of belief.”  Shariff and Rhemtulla found that a higher rate of belief predicted higher crime rates.  Researchers suggested that the comfort of heaven without the possibility of eternal punishment in hell compels one to commit further wrongdoings.  In Monday’s daily chart, The Economist compiled the data into a graph to display the connection between the two variables.  Countries with low crime rates and low rates of belief more often than not fell in the Middle Eastern and Asian regions, while countries in South America tended to possess higher crime rates and rates of belief.