Religion Continues to Play Significant Role in Party Identification

Gallup interviews conducted over the past four months suggest that "religion remains a significant correlate of political party identification in the U.S. today." As has been the case historically, people who are "very religious" are more likely to identify as Republicans and less likely to identify as Democrats. Survey data shows that 49 percent of very religious Americans identify as Republican or Republican-leaning, as compared with only 30 percent of nonreligious Americans.

Gallup categorized respondents as very, moderately, or not religious based on their answers to two questions regarding "the importance of religion and church attendance." For the very religious, "religion is an important part of daily life" and respondents attend their place of worship once every week (or almost every week). The nonreligious do not consider religion to play an important role in their everyday lives, and they seldom attend services. The moderately religious include "all who do not fall into the very religious or nonreligious groups but who provided valid responses on both religion questions ."

The impact of religion on party identification is most clearly visible among whites: 62 percent of very religious whites identify as Republicans, compared with 33 percent of nonreligious whites. Hispanics and Asians are on the whole more affiliated with the Democratic Party than they are with the Republican Party, but "very religious Hispanics and Asians skew less Democratic and more Republican than those who are moderately religious or nonreligious."
According to Gallup, "Very religious Hispanics are more likely to identify as Democrats than as Republicans by 17 points, compared with a 30-point difference among nonreligious Hispanics." And Among Asians, "net Democratic identification rises from 12 points among the very religious to 39 points among [the] nonreligious." Blacks, however, appear to be the exception to the rule. They are "the most Democratic of the four racial and ethnic groups," and religion appears to make little or no "difference in blacks' political orientation." If anything, more religious blacks tend to affiliate as Democrats with slightly more frequency: 78 percent of very religious blacks identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning, as compared with 74 percent of nonreligious blacks. Gallup writes on the exception: "The historical ties between blacks and the Democratic Party are so strong that they overwhelm any of the independent impact of religiousness so evident among other racial groups."
NH cf

No Longer an Urban Problem, Poverty Surges in Suburbs

According to a New York Times article, more than half of those living in poverty in metropolitan areas live in suburban areas. The article lists at least nine metropolitan populations of which more than 50% live in the suburbs. Over the past ten years, these nine metropolitan areas have shifted to the majority of their poor being concentrated in the suburbs. The Detroit-Warren area has a larger share of its poor population living the the suburbs than any other metropolitan area, with 59% of its poor population living in the suburbs.

According to the article, tackling suburban poverty presents a unique set of challenges. Suburbs lack the relatively large number of social assistance programs which exist in urban areas. In addition, the lack of public transportation in suburban areas makes any social programs less accessible than they might be in urban areas.

Over the past ten years, the number of poor residents in suburbs has increased by five million. Midwestern suburbs were among those most affected. The article cites a recent analysis by the Brookings Institution to show that recently the rise in suburban poor has been the most pronounced in areas most affected by the housing collapse such as Cape Coral, Florida and Riverside, California.

Overall, a majority (55%) of the metropolitan poor now live in suburbs. Ten years ago, a little less than half (49%) of the metropolitan poor lived in the suburbs. Although growth of poverty in the suburbs has been more pronounced than in urban areas, the poverty rate in suburbs is still far below that in urban areas. In 2010, the suburban poverty rate was 11.4%. The urban poverty rate was 20.9%.

JVSF cf

Despite Warnings, Children's Screen Time Increases

Common Sense Media released a report Tuesday showing that children younger than eight are spending more time in front of screens than ever before, according to a New York Times article. Common Sense Media, a nonprofit group based in San Francisco, found that almost half of families with annual incomes of $75,000 or more are downloading certain virtual applications geared towards their young children. However, the use of these apps is much less common in lower income families, with one in eight families with annual incomes of $30,000 or less downloading them. More than a third of low-income parents surveyed reported that they did not know what an "app" was. Common Sense Media refers to this phenomenon as the "app gap."

According to the study, half of children under eight have access to a mobile device including a smart phone, video iPod, iPad or a similar tablet. Time spent watching television is still responsible for the majority of children's time spent in front of screens; about half of children under two watch TV or DVDs on most days. These children devote, on average, two hours a day to these activities. The survey finds that children under two spend, on average, fifty-three minutes a day watching television or DVDs. The time devoted to being read to by parents was about half as long (twenty-three minutes per day).

Additionally, almost a third of children under two now have televisions in their own bedrooms. This has increased substantially over the past decade, with less than 20% of children ages six months to twenty-three months having televisions in their bedrooms in 2005. Children of families with annual incomes below $30,000 were more than three times as likely to have televisions in their bedrooms as children of families with incomes above $75,000. In families with annual incomes below $30,000, 64% of children under eight had televisions in their bedrooms. In families with annual incomes above $75,000 the portion of children under eight with televisions in their bedrooms decreased to 20%. 

Even though the American Academy of Pediatricians has warned against screen time in children under two, only 14% of parents surveyed reported that their children's doctor had ever discussed media exposure with them.

JVSF cf

Disproportionate Number of Native American Children in Foster Care

A recent report on a three-part NPR News investigation into the removal of Native American children from their families discusses the disproportionate number of Native American children in foster care, especially in South Dakota and the surrounding region.  According to the article, the large Native American representation in foster care is likely the results of the financial incentive that states have to remove Native American children, as the federal government provides each state “thousands of dollars for every child it takes,”and provides greater economic incentives for Native American children.  Furthermore, while states are obligated to do their best to place Native American children with relatives or tribal members according to the Indian Child Welfare Act, 90% of the Native American children in family foster care are in non-native homes or in group care.  The map related to the report shows the disproportionality index, which “gauges the level at which Native American children are present in the foster care system compared with the level at which they are present in the general child population” for each state.  A disproportionality index greater than 1 indicates that Native American children are overrepresented, and as the map shows, the states with the highest disproportionality indices are largely concentrated in the North West and Central North West regions of the US and include Washington, Idaho, South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota.

BL cf

College Grads Pessimistic

In one of today’s Wall Street Journal columns, David Wessel discusses the remarkable pessimism among those with a bachelor’s degree regarding the future of the US economy despite their clear economic advantage over those without bachelor’s degrees. As the first chart from the article shows, four-year college grads have lower unemployment rates than high school grads (4.2% and 9.7% respectively) and higher median weekly wages ($1,072 and $636). Despite these figures, white male 4-year college grads were actually more pessimistic about the future of the economy than the population overall, with 80% believing the U.S. economy is “going in the wrong direction” (compared with only 74% of the population overall) and 33% expecting the economy to get worse in the next 12 months (compared with only 32% of the overall population). While 4-year college grads may be better off than those holding less than a bachelor’s degree, their pessimism may not be entirely unwarranted. As the second graph from the article shows (also below), the mean income of households headed by a person with a bachelor’s degree peaked in 1999 at $99,431 (in 2010 inflation adjusted dollars) but plummeted to $90,636 last year. According to Wessel, things are worse for recent college grads, for which the unemployment rate is currently 10.7% and he goes on to express his disappointment that “having a college degree no longer guarantees a rising wage or a shot at the American dream.”



BL cf

Undergraduates Continue to Face Rising Tuition

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, Kevin Helliker discusses this year’s hike in tuition for undergraduate programs.  As the graph from the article (below) shows, the average tuition for in-state students at public four-year program colleges and universities increased from $7, 613 to $8,244 (8.3%) from the 2010-11 school year to the 2011-12 school year and it increased from $19,648 to $20,770 (5.7%) for out-of-state students.  Tuition also climbed for public two-year in-state programs by 8.7% and for private nonprofit four-year programs by 4.5%.  According to Helliker, the “the markedly quicker” increase in tuition experienced by public schools compared to that of private schools is part of a “decade-long trend” in which the price gap between the two has narrowed.  While some might argue that this is placing an ill-timed burden on students and their families, Helliker points out that large increases in Pell Grants and veteran benefits and the implementation of the American Opportunity Tax Credit has substantially offset the effects of tuition increases.

BL cf

United Nations Releases Population Projections for Year 2100

According to The Guardian, the world's population will reach seven billion by the end of this year.  The population is predicted to reach ten billion in the next 90 years, according to the most recent release by the United Nations.  The UN Population Division's analysis concludes that it will take 13 years for the population to reach eight billion.  Five years later, the population is estimated to reach nine billion, and 22 years after the ninth billion citizen is born, the population is projected to reach ten billion.

Countries with high fertility rates will likely contribute substantially to these population increases.  According to the United Nations, these countries include 39 countries in African, 9 in Asia, and 4 in Latin America.  The United Nations identifies all European countries (with the exception of Iceland and Ireland) as low-fertility countries.  According to the report, the United Nations's projections anticipate a decline in Europe's overall population by 2100.  Low-fertility countries are characterized by women not having enough children to guarantee that, on average, each woman will be replaced by a daughter who lives long enough to reproduce.  

China is predicted to reach its largest population in 2027 with 1.395 billion people.  This population is expected to decline to 941 million by 2100.  India will reach its peak population in 2062 with 1.718 billion people and will decrease to 1.6 billion by the year 2100.  

JVSF cf

New Climate Change Data

A recent article in The Economist discusses findings released October 20th by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature group, which includes this month's Nobel prize-winning physicist Saul Perlmutter and is led by astrophysicist Richard Muller. The group started a new climate change measurement project 18 months ago in order to "address the concerns of what Dr Muller terms 'legitimate skeptics'" of climate change who have qualms with inconsistencies in available temperature data that may exaggerate temperature changes. One way the group attempted to minimize possible exaggerating effects of inconsistencies was by developing an algorithm that weights data points in such a way that "awkward" data and "outlandish readings" are still included in the data but also don't distort the ultimate trends (as opposed to simply omitting so-called awkward data). The group also developed a "more nuanced heat map" that utilizes "basic spatial correlations in weather to estimate the temperature at points between weather stations." However, even after these innovations and addressing other possible biasing factors, the group found climate change trends similar to those published by other climate research institutions, including NASA, suggesting that existing temperature data is more or less accurate. Whether or not this will actually mitigate climate change skepticism is yet to be determined, as the newly published findings are currently being peer reviewed. The graph from the article (below) compares the land-surface average temperature anomaly measures found by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Group, NASA, NOAA and Hadley CRU. As the graph shows, all sources exhibit the same general upward trend between 1800 and 2006. Furthermore, most climate research institutions, including Berkeley Earth, estimate about a 0.9 degree Celsius increase in land temperatures over the past 50 years.

BL cf

Gallup: More Americans Blame Economic Woes on Government than Wall Street

A recent Gallup survey shows that Americans are far more likely to blame the federal government than Wall Street for the nation's economic problems. When asked to choose between the two, 64% of respondents say the government is more responsible for economic struggles, while only 30% blame financial institutions on Wall Street. Although Americans tend to blame the government more, as Gallup notes, "There appears to be no shortage of blame for either of these entities."

In an earlier poll, Gallup asked respondents to express their opinions on the two institutions separately, and the results were not favorable. Writes Gallup: "More than three-quarters of Americans, in both cases, say these entities deserve a great deal or a fair amount of blame for the economic problems facing the U.S." Even then, however, the federal government came out worse: "Still, reflecting the results of the forced-choice question, the percentage saying the federal government deserves a great deal of blame is 11 points higher than the percentage for financial institutions on Wall Street.Among partisan groups, Republicans are more likely (82%) to blame the federal government for the nation's economy than Democrats (49%). And while Occupy Wall Street supporters attach more responsibility to Wall Street (54%), on the other side, Tea Party supporters are far more likely to blame the government (82%).
Gallup notes: "These attitudes have significant political implications. Both the Tea Party movement, which has targeted the federal government, and the Occupy Wall Street movement, which has targeted big financial institutions, are in sync with significant segments of the U.S. population." To win political favor, it is likely that politicians who align themselves with one side more--the Tea Party or Occupy Wall Street--will have to reach across the line and appeal to voters from the other side.

NH cf

One-Word Reactions To GOP Candidates Favor Herman Cain; Perry Draws the Most Ire

A recent survey that asked Americans to describe leading GOP leaders "in a single word" found that Herman Cain was viewed in the most favorable terms. Americans most frequently associated Cain with his proposed "9-9-9" tax plan, followed by his ties to business and 23 respondents who found him "interesting." Romney was most closely associated with his religion, Mormonism, and his work on health care, and Rick Perry was most often identified with his home state of Texas.

While nearly as many (12%) respondents used positive words as negative words (14%) to describe Cain, a higher percentage of respondents used negative words and not positive ones to describe both Romney (21% versus 11%) and Perry (25% versus 6%). But while the negative continued to outweigh the positive for Perry when the respondent group was limited to Republicans and GOP-leaners, with 19% using a negative word and only 9% a positive one, both Cain and Romney received more positive than negative feedback among their party's political base. Still, the support for Romney (18% positive versus 15% negative) was less impressive than that for Cain (22% versus 5%).In addition, the survey found that "many Americans are unable to come up with words to describe the three GOP candidates. Nearly half (46%) did not offer a one-word description of Cain, 44% did not offer a word to describe Perry and 37% did not have a one-word description of Romney." The survey was conducted by the Pew People & the Press and The Washington Post from October 13-16; its respondent population was 1,007 adults.

NH cf

Ryan Womack featured IASSIST member

Ryan Womack, Data and Economics Librarian at Rutgers University Libraries and a member of the Outreach Team for TeachingWithData.org has been profiled as a member of the IASSIST Community, http://www.iassistdata.org/community/ryan-womack .

IASSIST, International Association of Social Science Information Services & Teachnology, is an organization of professionals working with information technology and data services to support research and teaching in the social sciences. The organization's main web page is http://www.iassistdata.org/ 

Fertility Rates and the Economy

In a report released on October 12, the Pew Research Center presented a correlation between fertility rates and the state of the economy; when the economy began to worsen in 2008 so did fertility rates in the United States. In 2007, births were at an all-time high, with 4,316,2333 that year. Ever since, births have been declining although the overall U.S. population continues to grow.
In an analysis of individual states, the Pew Research Center found that those states with the highest levels of economic distress in 2007 and 2008 were likely to have larger drops in fertility rates from 2008 to 2009 than were less affected states. In 2007 there were 69.6 births per thousand women of childbearing age (14 to 55 years old). By 2009 this number had dropped to 66.7. Of all racial groups, Hispanics experienced the largest decline in fertility rates. Hispanics were especially hard hit by the recession in general, particularly in terms of employment and household wealth. Much of the decline in births since 2007 may be due to the decision to postpone having children. According to the Pew Research Center, people may not actually be choosing to have fewer children but may just be choosing to wait to reproduce until the economy has stabilized.
JVSF cf

All The Single Ladies

An article published Friday in The Economist discusses the decline of the marriage rate of the black population and its implications for black women. As the below chart from the article indicates, the percentage of black adults married had decreased more rapidly than that of the white and Hispanic populations since 1970; as of 2010, the rate is down to about 40%. The article quotes Stanford professor and author of "Is Marriage for White People? How the African-American Marriage Decline Affects Everyone," who believes that a "man shortage" is at the heart of the issue. According to the article, roughly one in ten black men in their early thirties are incarcerated and black men have "fallen behind in education and income" relative to black women, with two black women graduating from college for every black man. As the group that "least intermarries with other races," black women are left with limited marital options and consequently, seven out ten are single.


cf

Inequality and Happiness

According The Economist, the relationship between happiness and wealth inequality is more complicated than one might think. Referencing an October 12th How's Life? report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the wealth inequality in a given nation has little correlation with the happiness inequality (disparity between happiest and least happy) of that nation's residents. These data suggest that residents of nations with more egalitarian wealth distribution are not necessarily more satisfied than those living in countries with high levels of wealth inequality.

The OECD report finds that, on average, well-being has increased over the past fifteen years. Possible explanations for this increase are that on average, people are less likely to be unemployed and experience better housing conditions. They also live longer and have higher educational attainment. These findings, however, are considerably varied across different countries as well as different populations. Individuals with less education and lower income scored, on average, lower on all measures of well-being examined in the report. They had shorter lives, experienced more health problems, and their children performed worse academically than the children of more educated parents with higher incomes. They also reported more exposure to crime and air pollution.

The OECD measures income distribution using the Gini index, which produces a coefficient value between 0 and 1, with 0 representing complete equality. Chile, Mexico, Turkey, and the United States have the highest levels of unequal income distribution. Nordic and Eastern European countries have a more equal distribution of income.

JVSF cf

Support for Death Penalty Down from Last Year, but a Majority Still Favors its Use

A recent Gallup poll shows that 61 percent of Americans favor the death penalty for people convicted of murder; another 52 percent believe the dealth penalty is applied fairly through the country's criminal justice system. The approval rate represents a three percent decline from last year, when 64 percent of Americans were in favor of the penalty. According to Gallup, this year's mark indicates "the lowest level of support since 1972, the year the Supreme Court voided all existing state death penalty laws in Furman v. Georgia."

Gallup writes that views on the death penalty in murder cases have "varied substantially" over time. In 1936, the first year Gallup began asking respondents about the death penalty, "59% of Americans supported it and 38% opposed it." This was followed by "a period from the late 1950s to the early 1970s when less than a majority of Americans favored it." And "support climbed to its highest levels from the mid-1980s through the mid-1990s, including the all-time high of 80% who favored the death penalty in 1994."

The 52 percent who say they believe the penalty is applied fairly also represents a decline from last year, when the figure stood six points higher, at 58 percent. Additionally, 40 percent of Americans state the dealth penalty is not used enough, "the lowest such percentage since May 2001, when Gallup first asked this question." Further, "twenty-five percent say the death penalty is used too often, the highest such percentage yet that Gallup has measured."

Americans view the death penalty issue along strongly partisan lines. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents approve of the practice, as compared with 46% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Gallup writes: "Additionally, men, whites, and those living in the South and Midwest are among those most likely to support the death penalty."
Gallup conducted the poll following the controversial execution of Troy Davis, who was put to death in Georgia this past September. Politicians' stances on the death penalty may play a role in the upcoming presidential race; at a recent GOP debate, Governor Rick Perry was asked about his views on the practice--and how it is applied in his home state.

NH cf

Pew: Public Interest Rests with Economy; Limited Attention to, Coverage of Anti-Wall Street Protests

With the public most interested in tracking changes in economic conditions, the recent Wall Street protests have not received much attention--or interest--from people or news organizations. This according to the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, which conducts a weekly survey called the News Interest Index "aimed at gauging the public’s interest in and reaction to major news events."

Over a quarter of respondents (27%) report that their top story last week was the economy. The Wall Street protests came in sixth (7%), also trailing interest in Steve Jobs (14%); the 2012 elections (12%); Amanda Knox (10%); and Afghanistan (8%). Although the percentage of total news coverage dedicated to the economy trailed interest, checking in at only 15%, the amount of coverage on Occupy Wall Street exactly matched news interest, at 7%.

When respondents were asked which news stories they followed very closely last week, the results were similarly slanted toward the economy. 43% say they followed economic news very closely, as compared with only 17% who say the same of Occupy Wall Street protests. Interest in Occupy Wall Street appears especially weak when compared with interest in the Tea Party in April 2009. Only "17% say they are following the current protests very closely, compared with 27% who followed early Tea Party protests very closely." Nor is there the same partisan disparity as there was with regard to the Tea Party. Back in April 2009, 43% of Republicans followed the Tea Party news very closely, compared with only 18% of Democrats. But interest in Occupy Wall Street is low across all partisan groups, with only 12% of Republicans; 17% of Democrats; and 19% of independents following the story very closely.
NHcf

Most Top Research Universities Still In US

Catherine Rampell discusses new data released from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in her recent New York Times "Economix" blog. The graph (right), based on the OECD data, shows the geographic distribution of the world's "University hotspots," or top 50 research Universities across a broad range of disciplines (as ranked by the OECD). Interestingly, US Universities made up the smallest number of hotspots in the Social Sciences out of all of the disciplines, as it was the only discipline in which US Universities made up less than a majority of the hotspots. US Universities accounted for the largest amount of hotspots in the disciplines of Chemistry and Computer Science, in which they accounted for close to 40 out of 50 hotspots. Across all departments, US Universities accounted for 80% of hotspots. While this may paint a favorable picture of American Universities, Rampell suggests that the future of American dominance in Research may be less certain, as a relatively small number of US residents hold doctorate agrees and many students attending American doctorate programs are from abroad.
BL cf

In Bad Economy, More Family Members Under One Roof

According to a report released by the Pew Research Center, the recession beginning in 2007 spurred Americans to move in with relatives. From 2007 to 2009, the number of Americans living in multi-generational households surged from 46.5 million to 51.4 million. The population living in multi-generational households climbed by 10.5% from 2007 to 2009. In 2007, 15.4% of the population lived in multi-generational households, whereas 16.7% did two years later. Multi-generational households are defined as house holds with a) two adult generations: parents and adult children ages 25 and older, b) three generations, c) skipped generations (grandparents and grandchildren, without parents) or d) more than three generations. In 2009, more than 10% of households in the United States were multi-generational; most multi-generational households consisted of two adult generations.

Although income levels for multi-generational households, when adjusted for household size, are lower than other households, the poverty rate among residents of multi-generational households is significantly smaller than for those in other household types. In 2009 the poverty rate was 11.5% for Americans in multi-generational households and 14.6% in other households.The report also finds that groups hardest hit by the recession may stand to benefit the most from multi-generational living. These groups include unemployed Americans, young adults, hispanics, and blacks. Whereas the poverty rate for unemployed Americans living in multi-generational households was 17.5% in 2009, the rate was substantially higher for Americans in other households, at 30.3%.

Often referred to as the "boomerang generation," today's young adults have increasingly moved back in with parents after living independently. A quarter of young adults ages 18 to 24 moved back in with their parents during the recession. The report attributes this to the high rate of unemployment in young adults during the recession.

JVSF

Data Gone Wrong: Chart on Debt Increases

In one of last week's Washington Post "Fact Checker" blogs, Glenn Kessler gives a rather scathing review of a chart (above) created by the office of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in May. The chart, based on data but not calculations made by the US Treasury Department, has gained attention in social media. As pointed out by Politifact and subsequently corrected by Pelosi's office, the original chart included a major math error by calculating debt increases as if Obama had taken office a year later than he did, cutting his actual debt increase by more than a half and increasing George W. Bush's significantly. Despite Politifact drawing attention to the error and the correction, the original chart is still being proliferated according to Kessler, who saw it in his Facebook "newsfeed" recently.

In addition to this more obvious error, Kessler points out the misleading nature of percent changes in raw debt figures - because Obama was faced with a substantially higher debt when he came into office than his predecessors, it would have taken a much greater nominal increase in the debt to achieve the same percentage increases. Kessler also points out use of gross debt measures rather than public debt measures. Although not technically "misleading," it is worth noting that had the chart used public debt figures rather than gross debt figures, Obama and George W. Bush would have had nearly the same debt increases (60% and 70% respectively) despite Bush's longer term. On his Pinocchio standard, which rates claims made by political figures or groups in fact-checking, Kessler gave Pelosi's chart "Four Pinocchios," which is reserved only for true "whoppers."

Kessler suggests that the debt increase as a percentage of gross domestic product as a more economically informative measure and, using White House Budget Office Historical Tables, calculated the following figures for each President:Although these figures are less flattering for Obama, Kessler notes that he is "battling a recession."

BL cf

Private Employers Add Jobs in September But Do Little to Alleviate Concerns About Economy; Heavy Losses in Public Education

The U.S. Labor Department published its September employment report Friday, and although it showed that the private sector added 137,000 jobs in the month, concerns about the economy remain. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1 percent and as the New York Times comments,"While the number of new jobs exceeded consensus forecasts, it was barely enough to accommodate population growth, much less help those who have been out of work for an extended period." The number of jobs added was also inflated due to the return of 45,000 Verizon employees who had been striking in August. The ranks of the unemployed are still large, and they include many people who have faced long-term unemployment: "there are still 14 million people searching for work, a little less than half of them for six months or longer," the Times writes. And with the housing market "still teetering" and the public sector hurting, there is plenty to worry about in the report. Local government cut 35,000 jobs in September, 24,400 of which were in public education. The president of the American Federation of Teachers, Randi Weingarten, told the Times that 277,000 education jobs had been cut since 2008--and that she expects another 280,000 to go in the next year.

There were, however, other positive signs in the report. For one, according to the Times, "the government...revised its estimates upward for the previous two months, suggesting that job growth in July and August had been better than originally reported." It "reported net gains of 127,000 and 57,000 jobs in July and August, respectively, an increase from the originally released numbers."

Further, auto sales increased nearly ten percent, reaching their highest level in five months; and sales at chain stores, led by luxury goods, also saw an increase in September. Also encouraging, the economy began to chip away at the consumer confidence lows that had been reported in recent months. The health care industry added 44,000 employees; employment and business services 48,000; and the information industry added 34,000 jobs in the month.

As President Obama continues his efforts to get Congress to pass his proposed jobs bill, both parties will likely try and use new data to convince the public that their economic approach is the right one. Senator Eric Cantor has already seized on the newest opportunity, responding to Friday's release by saying: "Unfortunately, the policies being promoted by this administration are serving as a roadblock to growth. Constant threats of tax increases and excessive regulations send the wrong signal to our entrepreneurs, investors and small business people."

NH cf

Data Shows Large Decline in Domestic Airfares

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, Susan Carey discusses the steady decline in domestic airfares over the last several decades and the implications for the airline industry. According to the Transportation Department, domestic airfares (adjusted for inflation) have fallen 16% since 1995. AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, which Casey refers to as "the weakest of the major airlines," is in the most financial peril with its stock price having collapsed Monday. Carey blames the 33% loss in value to investor fears that the company might soon have to file for bankruptcy-court protection. She also discusses the general difficulties plaguing the airline industry as a whole, including enormous expenses and external shocks from "terrorism, oil-price spikes, waning consumer confidence and high taxes." Airlines have attempted to compensate for the declining airfares and rising costs by increasing fees for amenities such as in-flight food and checked luggage. However, as the graph below shows, airfares have declined despite these new fees. The graph, based on data from the Air Transport Association, shows a sharp decline over the last 30 years in average round-trip amount for domestic flights and includes reservation change fees or baggage fees in addition to the fare (in 2010 inflation adjusted dollars). Rather than create new fees to help cover costs in the face of declining prices, Jeff Smisek, the chief executive of United Continental, believes that "professional management, as opposed to more charismatic, cowboy management" may be the answer.
BL cf

The Hispanic Vote in 2012

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, Jonathon Weisman discusses the potentially decisive role Hispanics may play in the 2012 elections, as Census data shows large increases in the voting-age Hispanic population in several swing states. According to the data, Florida saw a growth of nearly 250,000 in the Hispanic voting-age population from 2008 to 2010 while the growth of the voting-age white population was only 30,400.The growth in the voting-age Hispanic population also outpaced that of the voting-age white population in Nevada, with a 44,000 increase in Hispanics of voting-age and an 18,000 increase in whites of voting-age, and in New Mexico, with a 36,000 and 19,000 respective increase. The chart from the article shows the growth in White and Hispanic eligible voters in 7 key states, including Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, and their 2008 votes. As the chart indicates, Obama won all of the states except for Missouri but the Hispanic population has increased substantially relative to whites in each of the states since the 2008 election, with the highest percent increase in Hispanics eligible to vote in North Carolina, at 39.1%. Both parties are already making efforts to win the Hispanic vote in the 2012 election. According to Weisman, Obama conducted an online roundtable on Hispanic issues yesterday while GOP affiliated groups, such as American Crossroads, have been running both televised and radio ads in Spanish. Weisman also points out that while Obama won two-thirds percent of Hispanic votes nationwide in the 2008 election, his administration may have lost some Hispanic voters with high Hispanic unemployment rate relative to the national unemployment rate, failure to deliver on promises of an immigration law overhaul, and the Department of Homeland Security’s 1 million deportations of illegal immigrants during his term so far.



BL cf

With Revenues Down, Lawmakers Look to Alcohol

The New York Times recognized a new strategy among state and city governments trying to raise revenues during the economic recession: target alcohol. They write: "Since the recession started in earnest in 2008, dozens of states and cities have tinkered with laws that regulate alcohol sales as a way to build up their budgets."

Changes to existing laws have ranged from raising taxes on alcohol to trying to make it available on days it has traditionally not been sold, with a lot of tactics falling in between. According to the Times: "Twelve states have raised taxes on alcohol or changed alcohol laws to increase revenue, including Maryland, which in July pushed the sales tax on alcohol to 9 percent, from 6 percent — the first such increase in 38 years and one that is expected to bring in $85 million a year." And "in November, voters in Atlanta and elsewhere in Georgia will decide whether to repeal colonial-era laws that ban alcohol sales on Sunday."

Some of the changes to laws appear relatively small, yet governments still hope to bring in new revenue. Take Tennessee for example: "People touring the Jack Daniel’s distillery in Lynchburg, Tenn., may finally be able to have a sip now that the state has loosened laws to allow tastings as part of a package of changes intended to attract more alcohol-related business to the state."

And it is not just government hoping to bring in more revenue from changes to alcohol law. In Louisiana, universities are joining the crowd: "Fans of the Louisiana State University Tigers will soon be drinking Bandit Blonde...The university will get royalties of between 6 and 8 percent, said Charles D’Agostino, executive director of the university’s Louisiana Business and Technology Center."

Until the recession, alcohol revenue had been a growing industry; today, "the nation’s states and local governments take in $17 billion year from alcohol taxes."

What does the Times have to say about new developments in alcohol law?
"Drink up, America. The government needs the money."

NH cf

New Features Available on TwD!

TeachingWithData.org has added several new features. Each resource now has a Facebook "Like" button, comment box, along with a "Share" feature that lets users share the resource through many social media outlets. The user has the option to display their comment on the Facebook wall.

Another new feature on the site is indicators that show where the current page is located in the site. When viewing static pages such as About Us or User Support, the display includes a trail at the top of the documents

We hope that you will find these updates useful and will let us know how they affect your experience with our site. As ever, if you have any questions, comments, suggestions or problems with TeachingWithData.org, please let us know by dropping us a note at twdstaff@icpsr.umich.edu.