Population Forcasting

Jeremy Singer-Vine at Slate noticed a new Pew study predicting that the global Muslim population will grow twice as fast as the non-Muslim population over the next twenty years. The report, released today, is simply one example of population forecasting. At the core of most reports on demography is not just the make-up of the current population, but also predictions about the future population. Rather than taking them for granted, Singer-Vine investigated how these predictions are made and how accurate they are. In short, he found that demographers use three major variables: the fertility rate, the morality rate and the immigration rate. These three variables may appear obvious choices, but predicting them for years or decades into the future remains challenging. The baby boom of the middle of the twentieth-century, for instance, defied predictions by demographers.

Failure to accurately predict these variables has held back improvements in population forecasting which continue to be wrong at the national level by about six percent on average. In fact, estimates for developed countries have barely improved in a century (in developing countries, where record-keeping a century ago was quite poor, forecasting ability has improved) and the UN's worldwide predictions haven't gotten any more accurate since the 1950s.

ICPSR Research Paper Competition's deadline is January 31 - only 4 days left!

Here’s what Evelyn Williams, a 2010 winner, said about the ICPSR Research Paper Competition: “It is amazing that this paper was in part an inspiration for not one, but two trips to Kenya, Africa ... I have established many connections among the Kenyan women with disabilities and look forward to furthering the research as a part of my Graduate studies."

For details, http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/ICPSR/prize/index.jsp

Increase in Poverty Level in the US

A recent article on CNNMoney.com discusses new data released by the Census Bureau, which shows that the poverty rate has increased from 11.3% in 2000 to 14.3% in 2009. This is the highest poverty rate since 1994 and the number of Americans categorized as "in need," 43.6 million, is the highest recorded in 51 years. The poverty level threshold, as set by the Office of Budget and Management, is less than $21,954 for a family of four and less than $10,956 for an individual. Part of this increase in poverty could be result of the rapid increase in unemployment that occurred in 2009, as the unemployment rate went from 7.7% in the beginning of the year to 10.1% by October.

Rather drastic regional differences were found in the poverty levels across the US. The South was found to be the poorest region of the US and experienced the biggest increase in poverty with a rate of 15.7%. The Northeast fared the best, with a poverty rate of only 12.2%. Mississippi was found to be the poorest state, at a 20.6% poverty rate, while New Hampshire had the lowest poverty rate, 7.3%. According to this article, however, these comparisons could be skewed as they do not take into account regional differences in costs of living.

Americans Have Not Changed Gun Control Views in Light of Tuscon Shooting

According to the Pew Research Center, the recent Tuscon shooting has not triggered an increase in support for stricter gun control policy. Most Americans did not view the incident as an indication of a general problem in society but as an isolated act of the individual. Only 31% of Americans polled saw the incident as a reflection of a broader societal issue. Americans were more likely to classify the Virginia Tech shooting of 2007 as a universal problem; 46% of Americans polled in 2007 expressed a concern of a broader problem in society, in contrast to the 31% who expressed this concern in response to the Tuscon shootings. Among the 31% of Americans polled who saw the Tuscon shootings as a reflection of a larger scale problem, the most commonly indicated classification of these societal problems was the overall social climate, followed by the political/media climate. 27% blamed the overall social climate, followed by the 21% who blamed the political/media climate. Among the 31% who indicated a fundamental problem with society, only 13% mentioned the issue of gun control policy. Social climate issues included breakdown of society, bad parenting. lack of respect, frustration and hopelessness, lack of religious beliefs, lack of self-control, moral flaws, and stupidity. Political/media climate issues included bipartisan tensions, discontent with the current government, divisive political rhetoric, media coverage, and the extremist nature of the Republican party.


http://people-press.org/report/695/

JVSF

Is College Still Worth It?

Real wages for college graduates fell in 2010. Tuition continued to rise. And the long-hallowed consensus -- at least among the types of people who get newspaper columns -- that higher-education was a necessary investment for everyone began to fracture. Still, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics seem to confirm the still orthodox belief among economists that college is a good investment. There appears to be no secular change in sight for the trend that those who didn't graduate from college continue to fall further behind people who did. Even after taking into account student debt, it appears that higher education is absolutely a good investment (we can put aside, for the moment, the non-financial benefits of a liberal education, which for many people are quite substantial, and focus on the narrower question of whether attending college results in more or less cash). But as has been pointed out, these numbers can't tell the whole story. People who graduated from college tend to be more affluent and potentially more intelligent than those who don't even before they enroll in college. More work remains to be done. Still, it's worth noting again that the consensus among economists remains that going to college is a worthwhile investment for individuals and for the country as a whole.

Projected Government Spending in 2020

A recent article on CNNMoney.com discusses the four major government expenditures that are eating up US tax dollars: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and interest on national debt. According to this article, the government currently spends $0.76 of every federal tax dollar on these four expenditures. What is even more alarming are the projections made by a simulation done by the Government Accountability Office, which estimate that by 2020, $0.92 of every federal tax dollar will go to these four expenditures. This will present serious limitations on what the government will be able to do in the future, as it leaves only $0.08 of every federal tax dollar for all other expenditures.

How to Apply to ICPSR Summer Internship

The ICPSR Summer Internship Program for Undergraduates is excellent preparation for advanced studies and careers in data science and social science research.

How to apply:

Interested individuals should submit the following to ICPSR Human Resources
a cover letter of interest
resume or CV
two letters of recommendation
list of relevant courses
contact information for references

Mailing Address: Attn: Summer Internship Program, P.O.Box 1248, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106-1248

Email: careers@icpsr.umich.edu

Deadline for application February 15th 2011

For more information: http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/content/ICPSR/internship/

Globe Continued to Warm in 2010

Three separate reports released in the last week, show 2010 was either the warmest or second warmest on record, continuing a trend toward significantly warmer global temperatures that is driven by human emissions of Carbon Dioxide. The UN World Meteorological Organization has analyzed the data from the three different sources (which use subtlety different methods) and determined that 1998, 2005 and 2010 are statistically tied as the warmest year on record.

These three reports on global temperature, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Aeronautic and Space Administration of the United States Government and the British government's Met Office with University of East Anglia, all agree that the ten warmest years on record have all taken place in the last thirteen years and that the last nine years have accounted for nine of the ten warmest on record. The increase in global temperatures has been slight -- 2010 temperatures were just over 1.2F or 0.62C above their twentieth century averages (though that, in-turn, is somewhat higher than preindustrial temperatures) -- but significant enough to disrupt global climate patterns.

The Haves and the Have-Mores

In the New York Times Economix blog, Catherine Rampell writes that many people in the ninetieth to ninety-fifth percentile of the American income distribution consider themselves to be "middle-class" or "upper-middle-class" when most of the rest of the nation would consider them to be rich. She moves beyond the easy answer: that rich people hang out with richer people to point out that the very rich are substantially wealthier than the more pedestrian rich. For example, in dollar terms an income in the 96th percentile is closer to an income in the first percentile than to an income in the 99th percentile. Since there are diminishing returns to income, there's no way of knowing whether the difference in living standards between the rich and the super-rich is particularly significant, but the cash difference is substantial and conspicuous. In Rampell's words, the rich are "falling further behind their respective Jonses" than the poor and the middle class, who compare themselves to other members of the poor and middle-class, are.

This graph of cash income by income percentile shows the stratification between what George Bush called the "haves" and the "have-mores." Note the sharp turn upwards around the ninetieth percentile.

Difficulties Resolved

Over the holidays, TeachingWithData.org experienced intermittent difficulties. Periodically, the site did not display search results correctly or allow users to log into the site. The technical staff was able to locate and correct the problem. The site is now acting as expected and further problems are not anticipated.

We apologize for any difficulties that our users may have experienced.

Research Paper Competition winners announced

ICPSR is pleased to announce the winners of our 2010 Research Paper Competitions.

Evangeleen Pattison won the first-place award in the undergraduate competition with her paper “The Expansion of Higher Education: Access and Opportunity or Exclusion and Stratification?” Pattison, who was a student at the City College of New York when she wrote the paper, used data from the National Survey of Midlife Development to examine the dynamics of college educational attainment. Pattison is now enrolled in a master’s/Ph.D program at University of Texas.

Katie Farina of the University of Delaware won first place in the master’s student competition with her paper “The Effects of Situational Crime Prevention and Crime and Fear among College Campuses and Students.” The paper uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

Other winners in the undergraduate contest were Mathew Michaels of the University of Florida, who took second place with the paper “Americans’ Ever-Changing Attitudes toward Homosexuality,” and third-place winner Evelyn Williams of Kent State University at Stark for her paper “Satisfaction of Needs and Well-Being: An Application of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs to the Population of Kenya.”

Second place in the master’s competition was won by Boning Cao of Baruch College, for the paper titled “Is Higher Cognitive Ability Associated with a More Stable Marriage?”

The first-place winners received $1,000; the second-place prize is $750; and third is $500.

ICPSR is holding three competitions this year, two for undergraduates (one sponsored by ICPSR, and one by the Resource Center for Minority Data), and one for master’s students.


2011-01-12

Call for Participation

The North Central Student Sociology Conference (NCSSC) cordially invites undergraduate students in sociology, anthropology, criminology, and related fields to submit their original work for the presentations during the conference. All submissions will be evaluated by the committee for originality and quality of research. Students will have the opportunity to give a formal presentation in a traditional research session or to participate in a poster presentation session.

Submissions should be emailed or sent to:

Gail McGuire
Indiana University-South Bend
gmcguire@iusb.edu
Deadline: Monday, January 14th, 2011

December Job Creation Highest in Midwest

Recent Gallup poll data indicates that in December the Midwest showed the highest rate of job creation. The data were compiled after requesting employees to self-report whether their company was hiring or letting go.

32% of Midwest employees said that their companies were hiring, compared with 30% of employees in the South, 28% in the East, and 26% in the West. At the same time, the Midwest also led the way with the smallest proportion of employees who reported that their companies were letting workers go. 15% of Midwest employees said their companies were letting go, compared with 19% in the South, 20% in the West, and 21% in the East.


Gallup also uses these figures to generate its Job Creation Index, a value that represents the difference between the percentage of employees who self-report that their companies are hiring, and the percentage who say their companies are letting go. Nationally, the proportion hiring is 29%, compared to 19% letting go; this yields a figure of +10 for the nationwide index. Both the Midwest and South have an index above the nationwide index, at +17 and +11 respectively. Beneath the nationwide index are the East at +7, and West at +6.