Social Effects of the Great Recession

Los Angeles Times columnist Doyle McManus writes that recessions, especially sustained recessions like the current one, have psychological and social effects that go far beyond the economic ones. McManus is especially cognizant of individuals' likelihood to withdraw from civic organizations in difficult economic times and worried that such changes in behavior often last an entire lifetime. He quotes UCLA Professor Jennie Brand who notes that those who lose their jobs are 30% less likely to participate in civic organizations throughout the course of their entire lives, even after they regain their jobs.

McManus also worries about long term pessimism, which he claims (without empirical support) leads to less investment and lower birth rates. He notes that fewer than half of those surveyed now expect their children to live better than they do -- a substantial change from previous years.

Data Dogs

Reuters reports on a growing movement among governmental and private groups across the globe, that is gaining special traction within the US government, to rethink and improve on traditional economic indicators. The article reports on two central critiques of current data management. One is that governments spend too little on data collection and as a result are unprepared to meet the challenges they face. The report notes that the Federal Reserve had little data on the complex financial instruments whose failures contributed to the recent financial crisis. Similarly, unemployment estimates turned out to be under-counting those actually unemployed by 1.2 million people early in President Obama's term because of a modeling difficulty. The Congressional Budget Office once misforcasted a budget by 100 billion dollars. More substantively, the forty-five-year-old poverty measurements are acknowledged by both left and right to be obsolete, yet they are still used to determine eligibility for some federal programs.

A second, perhaps more serious problem haunts economic data, argues Reuters, one which cannot be fixed by a few million more dollars spent on data collection. A growing chorus, lead by the Sarkozy Commission, set up by the French President, suggests that Gross Domestic Product, traditionally seen as the top-line measure of economic success, is quite flawed. Criticisms range from the fact that the statistic, first coined in 1934 is out of date, to the fact that it does not including unpaid work (such as homemaking in developed countries), to the contention that well-being has little to do with the size of a paycheck. Most acknowledge these criticisms, yet many harbor doubts about improved measures of development. "Money cannot buy happiness, and GDP cannot measure it" admits one conservative, but it remains superior to "someone's subjective decision about how you should measure your happiness."

Equal Rights? Well, Sort Of

The Pew Global Attitudes Project surveyed opinions on women's rights and equality in twenty-two nations across five continents and found that overwhelming majorities in twenty-one of them supported equal rights for men and women when asked directly. Yet as Catherine Rampell and Victoria Shannon of the New York Times pointed out, that ideal is often not translated to more tangible beliefs, especially outside the West. Outside of the Americas and Europe most people in most countries agree that when jobs are scarce preference should go to men. In Pakistan, Egypt and India most believe boys more deserving of a university education and in several other countries, substantial minorities agreed.

Even in countries where support for equal rights is almost universal, most still believe that men lead better lives than women. In fact it is only in South Korea and Japan, countries less supportive of equal rights than similarly wealthy countries in the West, where most thing women lead better lives.

Muslim Views on America

A couple weeks ago, the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project released a survey of global opinions in 22 countries, focusing on global views of the United States and President Obama. Today, the AP published an analysis of the study focusing on Muslim attitudes toward the US. Notably, the US gets high ratings in countries in countries that are largely, but not overwhelmingly Muslim, with approval of 52% in Lebanon, 59% in Indonesia and 81% in Nigeria. Yet in majority Muslim countries, even those with close ties to the West, positive views of America remain rare. Just 17% of those surveyed in Egypt, Pakistan and NATO-ally Turkey see the US favorably, while majorities in Jordan, Egypt, Indonesia, Lebanon, Pakistan and even Turkey fear that the United States military could some day threaten their countries. More encouragingly, across all countries, overwhelming majorities oppose suicide attacks and the al-Qaeda movement.

The poll was taken before an Israeli attack on a blockade-running Turkish aid flotilla further strained relations between the United States and the Muslim world.

Recession Affecting Most of Us

Unemployment resulting from the Recession of 2007 maxed out at 10.6%, most Americans felt the pinch of the recession in one way or another according to a new study published in Business Week. The Pew Research Center reports that 55% have either lost a job, or seen their salary or work hours reduced. A full 32% have been unemployed at some point during the recession, while 28% have been forced to work fewer hours and 11% to work just part-time. Naturally, though perhaps compounding the recession, 62% have cut back on their spending while only 6% are spending more than they were prior to the recession.

Though 54% think the country is still in the depths of the recession, there are signs of hope. 62% expect their personal finances to improve over the next year and 15% believe the economy is now back on the right track.