Latino Turnout Might be Low

According to a new poll by the Pew Hispanic Center, Latino support for Democrats remains as strong as ever with registered Latino voters supporting Democratic candidates for Congress by a margin of 65%-22% (compared with a statistical tie of 47%-45% for all registered voters). This gap is typical for Hispanic voters who supported Barack Obama by a margin of 67%-31% (the total vote was 53%-46%). Yet the New York Times speculates that Hispanic disillusionment with the Democratic Party seems to be outweighing backlash against nativism and a new anti-immigrant law in Arizona in one major way; only 51% of registered Latinos are "certain" to vote, compared with 70% of the general registered population. And while immigration issues certainly matter heavily to Hispanics -- far more likely to be immigrants themselves than the general population -- they are less likely to determine Latino voting patterns than Democrats might hope. Hispanics listed "general" issues of education, jobs, healthcare and the budget deficit as more important than immigration issues. Education and the War in Afghanistan were also within the margin of error at the 95% confidence level signaling the possibility that they, also, could be as important as Latinos as immigration.

The full report including sampling information is available for download here.
SSDAN Office

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