Latinos and Democratic Turnout
Tuesday night was a bad night for Democrats who lost several governorships, several state legislatures, six (and maybe seven) senators, and a whopping sixty members of the House of Representatives. But as Nate Silver points out at FiveThirtyEight, there were, as in any election, bright spots and this year, most of the brights spots for Democrats came in Nevada -- where Harry Reid surprisingly survived a challenge from Sharron Angle, Colorado where Michael Bennett beat Ken Buck, and California where Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer both won by larger than expected margins. The one defining characteristic that all of these states share: a large Latino population. To test the larger theory, that polling underestimated Democrats' Latino vote, Silver compiled results from fifteen states with heavy Latino populations and compared them to the polling average leading up to the election. He found that Democrats (who are popular among Latinos) outperformed the polling average by 2.3% across the fifteen states, though there was enough state-by-state variation that the results don't lead to firm conclusions.
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