Election Update: Who is the Typical Supporter?

FiveThirtyEight recently released data showing the current trends in voting, based on multiple demographic factors and how they determine which way voters are leaning. Milo Beckman took these trends and applied it to white voters to see specifically which demographics might influence their votes the most. The survey revealed some findings previously communicated by democratic and republican bases: Clinton is typically supported by those with higher levels of education, women, and people who live in urban areas. While Trump is supported more by men, people with lower levels of education, and residents of rural areas. The survey also came out showing that, contrary to popular belief, income is one of the least predictive factors to explain white vote intention.



The analysis also revealed the two most important predictors: religious attendance and education. These predictors were broken down even further to create three categories first for education: none, some, or a degree from college education. Then, for church attendance: never, sometimes, or weekly attendance to church. These categories were then crossed to show the share of likely votes that Clinton might obtain. Overall the survey reveals that those white voters who attend church more and have less college education tend to lean Trump, and those with higher levels of education and that attend less to church tend to lean more towards Clinton. The voters  in the middle ground are more divided but their preference can be better explained by using the third most predictive variable: residence in urban, suburban, or rural locations. Those in urban areas lean towards Hillary and those in suburban and rural locations towards Trump.


For more interactive data on the election also check out the FiveThirtyEight elections forecast, which gives up to date stats on the election outcome.








References:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/religion-and-education-explain-the-white-vote/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo










































Tyler Aman

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