Years Lost to the Financial Crisis

In the daily chart for February 23^rd, The Economist analyzed various economic indicators to determine how many years were lost to the financial crisis of 2008.  The data covers economic output, wealth, and labor markets.  With these figures, The Economist calculates, in economic terms, what year each country is in.  For instance, the United States’ GDP per person was higher in 2005 than it is today, its main stock market index is lower today than in 1999, and based on all the indicators, the nation has traveled back in time roughly ten years.  The worst performing country of all those considered was Greece; based on the indicators, the country would just be reaching the new millennium.  Of course, as lawmakers in Greece fight to alleviate the effects of the debt crisis, reaching the millennium in economic terms may still be quite a struggle.  Germany has weathered the storm best of all the countries evaluated; the financial crisis has set the country back to approximately 2009. 

Underemployment Increases to 19%

 On February 17^th, Gallup released a chart tracking underemployment from January 2010 to February 15^th 2012.  Gallup calculates underemployment by combining the percent of workers who are unemployed with the percent of workers who are employed at part-time jobs but who have a desire to work full-time.  While this number has dropped from the 20.3% recorded this time two years ago to 19.0% in mid-February 2012, the measure is up significantly from the mid-January figure of 18.0%.  Gallup notes that seasonal factors tend to increase both unemployment and underemployment at this time of year; however, the research organization noted that “underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions since mid-January.”  This increase in underemployment is also consistent with the drop off in Gallup’s Job Creation Index from +16 in January to +13 in mid-February.

World's Best Organ Donors

Yesterday's daily chart from The Economist compared organ donation rates across selected countries. The subject of organ donation has been in the news recently, as the British Medical Association suggested this week that Great Britain change from an opt-in system to the opt-out system more commonly featured throughout Europe. The opt-in system gives individuals the opportunity to sign up for organ donation, but does not assume that they are otherwise willing to donate; the opt-out system, on the other hand, assumes individuals are willing to donate their organs unless they opt out.

As The Economist points out, however, differences in rates may have more to do with "culture and capacity...than legal regimes." After all, "Spain has an opt-out system and leads the league with around 32 deceased donors per million people; but so does Greece, and it lurks near the bottom with four. Americans, like Britons, have an opt-in system, but also one of the highest total donation rates in the world."

Religious Americans Experience Greater Well-Being

A recent Gallup report suggests a statistically significant relationship between religiosity (measured in part by frequency of church/synagogue/mosque attendance) and the well-being of an individual. The same results were yielded even after controlling for various demographic factors, such as age, gender, and socioeconomic status. Gallup’s Well-Being index is composed of six groups, among them the Emotional Health Index and Work Environment Index. In 5 out of 6 of these indices, religious individuals scored higher than nonreligious individuals, while the Physical Health Index was the only sub-group in which nonreligious individuals outperformed their religious counterparts.

Census Bureau Releases Data on Voting Trends

Earlier this week the Current Population Survey and the U.S. Census Bureau released revised data on voting trends from 1964 to 2010.  The data examines voting and registration behavior by region, race and ethnicity, gender, age, educational attainment and other demographic features for both congressional and presidential elections.  One graph that was included was “Percent  Voting by Race and Age: Presidential Elections,” which shows the percentage of whites and blacks of voting age and whites and blacks 18-24 years old that voted from 1968 to 2008.  For every presidential election in this time period, a substantially larger percentage of all voters participated than the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds.  In 1968 and 1972, a much larger percentage (roughly 52% for each election) of white 18 to 24-year-olds voted than black 18 to 24-year olds (approximately 38% and 35% respectively).  This racial gap in voting narrowed substantially by 1984, however, when both groups were slightly above 40% with the percentage of white 18 to 24-year olds voting only slightly higher than black 18 to 24-year-olds.  Since 2000, young black people have shown a better voter turn- out than white young people – especially in the 2008 election in which roughly 52% of black young people voted compared to only about 44% of white young people.       

Why Data Literacy is Important Today More than Ever

In a recent New York Times article, Steve Lohr discusses the growing need for data-literate employees in almost every sector as businesses “drift towards data-driven discovery and decision making” and we move forward in “the Age of Big Data."  Lohr refers to a report published last year by McKinsey Global Institute, which projects that “the United States needs 140,000 to 190,000 more workers with ‘deep analytical’ expertise and 1.5 million more data-literate managers.”  According to Lohr, the amount of data increases by 50% every year and it is this growing abundance of information that has helped bring us to this so-called Age of Big Data.  This rapid data growth can be attributed to things ranging from the creation of new digital sensors by manufacturing firms to greater accessibility to U.S. government data on the internet.  According to Lohr, this wealth of new data - in particular, Google searches, Facebook posts and tweets - allow us to observe and measure things in a way that we have previously not been able to do. For example, trends in the number of housing-related searches have more accurately predicted housing sales than real estate economists and a spike in google searches related to flu symptoms tends to precede an increase in flu patients coming to hospital emergency rooms in the region by a couple of weeks.  Lohr predicts that business will increasingly rely on analysis of data such as this in decision making as part of “data-guided management”.  For example, large retailers such as Walmart and Kohl’s now use data ranging from sales to the weather to time price markdowns. 

Number of Uninsured Americans on the Rise

More Americans are now uninsured in 2011 than in 2008, according to a recent Gallup poll. The declining number of Americans who have health insurance has been evident in most population groups, with the exception of younger adults and seniors whose decline rate was within the margin of error. For those who are fortunate enough to have insurance, fewer of them are receiving it from their employer, likely because the employer can not afford to provide insurance or because the employee can not afford to purchase insurance.  Many factors are likely at play in the steady increase of the uninsured. As Gallup reports, while the unemployment rate may be lower in 2011 than in 2008, many more Americans still remain underemployed and thus unable to afford insurance. Health care costs are also continuing to rise with no end in sight, indicating that this trend is likely to continue.

8.1% Unemployment Predicted for Fourth Quarter

A survey conducted by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve involving 45 economic forecasters estimated that with current trends, unemployment is likely to drop to 8.1% by the fourth quarter. This poll shows an upward trend in the forecasting of economic prospects. A similar poll conducted in November projected unemployment averaging 8.7% in the fourth quarter. This optimism about the future of the nation’s economy is not necessarily unfounded. As of January the employment rate declined to 8.3%, a major improvement from November’s unemployment rate of 8.7%.

Disparity in Educational Attainment by Sex, Race Persists

A U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on the educational attainment level of young adults shows that educational disparities among Americans of different races and sex continue to persist. Findings suggest that women are outpacing men in education: In October of the year they turned twenty-four years old, 19 percent of men had received a bachelor's degree, compared with 28 percent of women.

And the gap between whites and non-whites is also significant: "Non-Hispanic whites are nearly three times as likely as Hispanics or Latinos to have received their bachelor’s degree at age 24. Twenty-eight percent of non-Hispanic whites had received their bachelor’s degree, compared with 11 percent of non-Hispanic blacks and 10 percent of Hispanics or Latinos." The gap is apparent before college, too: "Non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics or Latinos are about twice as likely as non-Hispanic whites to be high school dropouts in the October they were age 24."

Unemployment Rises While Output Falls in Greece

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, Alkman Granitsas discusses Greece’s unemployment rate for November 2011, which was released Thursday.  The November unemployment rate was 20.9%, which is up from 18.2% in October 2011.  The graph from the article shows the steady climb in Greek unemployment since 2010, when unemployment was below 15%.  As the graph also shows, this rise in unemployment has coincided with a fall in industrial output of 7.8% from November to December.  Granitsas points to last year’s austerity measures as a likely contributor to the economic slowdown that has resulted in a fifth year of recession for Greece.

LinkedIn Exceeds Wall Street's Expectations with Strong Quarterly Showing

A Reuters article noted LinkedIn's strong showing in the fourth quarter of this past year, when its revenue of $167.7 million exceeded Wall Street's expected $159.7 million. At the same time a year earlier, revenue for the fourth quarter only totaled $81.7 million. And more money is expected to trickle in; the company, which went public in May, set a revenue estimate for 2012 in the range of $840 million to $860 million. Expectations were also strong outside the company: "Average Street estimates for the full year 2012 were $828.2 million in revenue."

Reuters credits the company's increased revenue "to strong product and subscription growth."

Looking for a Job? Try North Dakota

A recent Gallup survey shows that more employers in North Dakota were hiring rather than firing workers, and by a significant margin. This landed North Dakota a +34 score on Gallup’s Job Creation Index, with the District of Columbia trailing behind in second place with a +24 score. Rhode Island received the lowest score with a +4 and New Jersey placed second to last with +6. Though North Dakota may have the best job creation, Nevada appears to be making a turn around and had the strongest improvement in job creation. Michigan also improved significantly, adding 8 points to its job creation index in the past year.

Steve Jobs: The Most Underpaid CEO?

A debate has been growing regarding executive pay and performance. While many financial-research companies, such as Oberatt, hold that pay should be correlated with performance, this is often not the case.  For many companies in the S&P 100, the performance of the company does not necessarily impact the pay of the CEO. Obermatt, by calculating and comparing the profit and shareholder returns of companies, has compiled a list of the "most over- and underpaid" CEOs. Among the list of the most overpaid were Hewlett-Packard’s CEO, Mark Hurd and Ray Irani, the CEO of Occidental Petroleum. Steve Jobs was listed as the most underpaid CEO with Eric Schmidt of Google coming in a distant second.

And the Winner for Highest Tax Rate Goes to…

Despite the lively debate surrounding our current tax code, the tax rate on incomes of $100,000 in the United States is quite low compared to countries in Europe and Asia. While Denmark may take the prize for the highest tax rate for incomes of $100,000, it only taxes 0.2% for social-security contributions. Taking into account all of these factors, Belgium actually gets the most out of its $100,000 earners, taking a cut of about 48%.  Also, as the Economist explains, despite the fact that tax rates for personal income were on the decline between 2003 and 2009, many governments have raised taxes in an effort to combat serious deficits.

Job Openings Up in December

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), there were 3.4 million job openings on the last business day of December, an increase of "39 percent since the end of the recession in June 2009." This also signals an increase since the end of November, when the number of job openings totaled 3.1 million. The BLS Editor's Desk notes, "The job openings rate—2.5 percent in December—has trended upward since the end of the recession in June 2009, when the job openings rate was 1.8 percent."

Teenage Pregnancy Rate on the Decline

Data recently released by the Economist shows that the teenage pregnancy rate is on the decline, from almost 12% at the high of the 90’s, to 7%. While the pregnancy rate has declined for White, African American, and Hispanic teenage girls 15-19 years old, black and Hispanic teenagers are still more likely to get pregnant. The abortion rate has also declined, though it still remains higher for black teenagers.

Getting Rich, Fast

The Economist's daily chart shows that, adjusted for age, and "assuming that Facebook's recently announced share offering is valued at $100 billion," Mark Zuckerberg will become "the richest man in the world." By net worth, Mr. Zuckerberg would score "ninth in last year's rankings." But "at 27, he is the youngest of the plutocrats by a considerable margin."

Computation Error Explains Census Bureau's Incorrect Estimate of Mortality Rate

Researchers Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova of the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago found that a computation error was to blame for the U.S. Census Bureau's incorrect prediction six years ago that "that there would be 114,000 centenarians in the country by 2010 when the actual number turned out to be half that at 53,364." The researchers' work "contradict[s] a long-held belief that the mortality rate of Americans flattens out after age 80."

Instead, it appears that "Gompertz Law, named for Benjamin Gompertz, who observed in 1825 that a person's risk of death in a given year doubles every eight years of age...holds at least through age 106, and probably higher, but the researchers said mortality data for those older than 106 is unreliable."

Asset Performance: the Winners and Losers

The Economist recently published data focusing on the asset performance of bonds, equities, and precious metals. Although many sectors of the world economy have taken hits, government bonds and gold have fared well. As The Economist explains, this is likely because many people view these assets as "stores of value", or safe investments. However, not all government bonds have thrived during this time. Greece bonds had the lowest returns, with EU Carbon credits coming in second and Egypt equities in a distant third.

Facebook Files for I.P.O.

On February 1, Facebook filed for an I.P.O. (Initial Public Offering), taking the first measure towards becoming a publicly traded company.  Facebook is aiming to raise $5 billion from its I.P.O., which, according to The Economist, would give it market capitalization (total value of tradable shares) similar to that of McDonald's.  Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook's founder and CEO, owns 28% of the company, which will be worth approximately $28 billion.  Facebook's high value is due in large part to its ability to target individuals with advertisements which pertain to their particular interests.

Union Membership in 2011

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released a report on union membership in 2011, and how the membership rate compares across regions and industries. The Editor's Desk summarized some of the findings and provided visuals. Some findings of note:

 -"The union membership rate for public-sector workers (37.0 percent) was substantially higher than the rate for private-sector workers (6.9 percent)."

 -"Within the public sector, local government workers had the highest union membership rate, 43.2 percent."




-"In 2011, 29 states and the District of Columbia had union membership rates below that of the U.S. average, 11.8 percent, while 21 states had higher rates. All states in the Middle Atlantic and Pacific divisions reported union membership rates above the national average, while all states in the East South Central and West South Central divisions had rates below it."

Youth Unemployment in Europe Is "Scary"

Zero Hedge, a US financial blog, included what it referred to as “Europe’s Scariest Chart” in a post Tuesday. Rather than European debt or bond prices, as one may expect, the chart shows the unemployment rate of those 16-24 year-olds in Spain, Greece, Portugal and the entire Euro Zone. As the chart shows, the youth unemployment rates increased sharply for Spain and Greece in 2008 and have continued to climb rapidly while that of Portugal and the Euro-Zone as a whole remained comparatively stable. Currently, youth unemployment is highest in Spain and Greece at 51.4% and 46.6% respectively. That of Portugal and the Euro-Zone is quite a bit lower at 30.7% and around 20% respectively. This chart is the “scariest” because, according to Zero Hedge, “the last thing Europe needs is a discontented, disenfranchised, and devoid of hope youth roving the streets with nothing to do.”

Deadline Alert for ICPSR Summer Undergraduate Internship

The deadline for the ICPSR Summer Undergraduate Internship is Monday, February 13, 2012. For more information or to apply, see http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/content/ICPSR/internship/