Stephen Gandel at Time magazine attempts to explain why poverty has gone up so quickly in this recession given that poverty rates have only increased marginally in previous recessions. He argues that in addition to the fact that this recession is steeper than most, it builds on long-term economic trends. The first is increasing inequality: the broadest measure of inequality in the US, the gini coefficient, has gone up 22% since the early 1980s. Thus more people are more vulnerable to cyclical downturns that might force them into poverty. The second is that more of the unemployed have been unemployed for longer; 42% of the unemployed for August (and 46% in July) had been unemployed for more than six months, a much higher percentage than normal. Thus the economic pain of unemployment is concentrated on fewer more vulnerable households. As the graph below shows, term of unemployment is largely cyclical but has shown a secular upward trend over the past thirty years. Thus Gandel argues that even after recovery begins, the United States may struggle with long term poverty.
No comments :
Post a Comment